West German model for Ukraine's NATO membership is discussed in West – FT
Among the ideas being discussed in the West as possible scenarios for ending the current hot phase of the war in Ukraine and preventing a new one is for Ukraine’s NATO membership to follow the West German model. This would provide Ukraine with security guarantees and deter Russia.
Source: European Pravda, citing an article in the Financial Times in which the newspaper collected together the views of unnamed diplomats and public comments on possible scenarios for ending the war and Ukraine's accession to NATO.
Details: The article notes that there is a growing belief, both in the West and increasingly in Kyiv, that meaningful security guarantees for Ukraine from its partners could form the basis for an agreement to end the current hot phase of the war. While Russia would retain de facto control over the occupied territories, they would continue to be considered legitimate territories of Ukraine that are temporarily occupied and should be regained by diplomatic means in the future when that becomes possible.
One Western diplomat, quoted anonymously, suggested that such a temporary surrender of territory is the only possible option for Ukraine to become a member of NATO.
Former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg hinted in an interview this week that the ongoing war and partial occupation of Ukraine's territory do not necessarily mean that Ukraine's full membership is off the table.
Stoltenberg recalled Japan's situation: the US guarantees provided to Japan do not extend to the occupied Kuril Islands. Similarly, only West Germany was covered by the "NATO umbrella" after it joined in 1955.
Quote from Stoltenberg: "When there is a will, there are ways to find the solution. But you need a line which defines where Article 5 is invoked, and Ukraine has to control all the territory until that border."
The Financial Times noted that discussions about a "West German model" for Ukraine have been going on in expert circles for over a year and a half. Dan Fried, former US Assistant Secretary of State for Europe, and Kurt Volker, former US Ambassador to NATO and Donald Trump’s Special Envoy for Ukraine, are among those who have argued for it.
In an interview with a Czech media outlet, Czech President Petr Pavel said he did not believe Ukraine's regaining of control over all the territories within its internationally recognised borders was a prerequisite for seriously considering its NATO accession.
"If there is a demarcation, even an administrative border, then we can treat [that] as temporary and accept Ukraine into NATO in the territory it will control at that time," he said.
American historian and Cold War expert Mary Sarotte has also argued for this, noting that individual membership terms have been adapted for certain countries. For instance, Norway, a founding member of NATO, opted not to host Alliance bases on its territory, while West Germany was admitted on the understanding that its borders were temporary.
Consequently, Ukraine could establish a conditional border to define its defensive lines and agree to additional conditions. These might include restrictions on the permanent deployment of allied troops and nuclear weapons, except in response to a direct threat of attack, and a commitment to refrain from using military force beyond this demarcation line except in self-defence.
Sarotte believes that Ukraine's "partial" accession to NATO, following the West German model, is a feasible scenario for a conditional victory. This arrangement would grant Ukraine protection, freedom, and a chance to develop while keeping Russia isolated. This outcome is preferable to waiting for Kremlin ruler Vladimir Putin to abandon his ambitions regarding Ukraine or for Russia to achieve further military successes.
Some analysts caution against seriously considering the West German model for Ukraine, arguing that, unlike in the past when the borders were recognised by both parties, the current situation in Ukraine sees daily shifts in the front line. Both Ukraine and Russia still want to change the status quo, and some of the more cautious NATO members may still be reluctant to extend Article 5 guarantees to Ukraine.
Background: During his inaugural press conference as NATO Secretary General on 1 October, Mark Rutte refrained from speculating on when Ukraine might receive an invitation to join the Alliance.
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