Armed Forces of Ukraine may be forced to retreat from Pokrovsk – Estonian Defence Intelligence

The Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Centre agrees that Ukrainian forces may be forced to withdraw from Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, by the end of the year.

Source: Lieutenant Colonel Janek Kesselmann, Deputy Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Centre, in a comment to ERR, as reported by European Pravda 

Details: According to Kesselmann, the Russian forces continue to hold the initiative on the Ukrainian front, and the Armed Forces may be forced to withdraw from Pokrovsk by the end of the year.

According to an Estonian intelligence representative, 167 frontline attacks are recorded on average per day, with the Russian Federation's army concentrating nearly half of these strikes on the Donetsk front.

Quote: "In the direction of the city of Pokrovsk, which is the centre of attacks, the Russian Federation has advanced about one to two kilometres over the past week, and the distance to the outskirts of Pokrovsk, as far as we know, is about five to seven kilometres."

Details: He added that if this intensity continues, "most likely, by the end of this year, Ukrainian forces will be forced to retreat from Pokrovsk and take positions deeper in the rear".

Kesselmann also noted that an important event this week was the capture by the Russian forces of the city of Vuhledar.

Quote: "According to our calculations, Ukrainian units established defensive positions approximately seven to eight kilometres to the north. And, now that Ukraine has been forced to retreat from the city, we may expect the enemy's actions to escalate on this front."

Details: Speaking of Kursk Oblast, Kesselmann stated that Russia is reportedly sending units there, and that Russian troops may attempt to launch a counteroffensive in October.

Background:

• On 27 September, Estonian Defence Intelligence asserted that Ukraine's effective airstrikes against Russian military stockpiles should begin to have an impact on the front lines in October.
• On 12 July, UK Defence Intelligence indicated that Russia's average daily casualties of killed and injured between May and June 2024 reached a record high for the duration of its campaign against Ukraine.

Support UP or become our patron!