Russian offensive to reach culmination soon – ISW

Russian forces do not have sufficient manpower and equipment to sustain an intense offensive and the current Russian offensive operations in Ukraine’s east are likely to reach a culmination within the next few months, if not weeks.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: The Russian offensive in Ukraine, which started in the autumn of 2023, continues to result in slow but steady tactical gains in certain areas, though larger, more significant progress is likely to remain out of reach. 

Ukrainian forces are effectively defending in layers along the line of contact, gradually giving up territory while causing heavy losses to Russian troops. This defence is slowing down the Russian advance, but operational difficulties on the Ukrainian side are creating opportunities for Russian forces to make tactical gains.

However, Russia is facing shortages in manpower and equipment, making it unlikely that they can sustain these intensified offensive efforts for much longer. It’s expected that Russian operations in Ukraine’s east will peak in the coming weeks or months as noted by Ukrainian officials and analysts at ISW.

On 1 October, Russian forces captured the city of Vuhledar in the western part of Donetsk Oblast. This position may provide them with a better tactical advantage to push toward the H-15 highway (connecting Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia) and reduce the large Ukrainian-held area in western part of Donetsk Oblast.

Quote: "The Russian seizure of Vuhledar will not on its own radically change the operational situation in western Donetsk Oblast, however, and Russian forces will likely struggle to achieve their operational objectives in the area during the ongoing offensive operation in western Donetsk Oblast. Russian offensive operations that are pursuing operationally significant objectives, like the Russian effort to seize Chasiv Yar or to push Ukrainian forces off the left (east) bank of the Oskil River, have either stalled or are resulting in particularly gradual gains over long stretches of time, respectively.

Russian forces continue to prioritise their offensive push towards Pokrovsk, and the operational significance of seizing the city will likely in part depend on the Russian military's ability to leverage the city in wider operational manoeuvre in Donetsk Oblast."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 3 October:

• The Russian offensive effort in eastern Ukraine that began in autumn 2023 continues to produce gradual Russian tactical gains in specific sectors of the front, but operationally significant gains will likely continue to elude Russian forces.
• Ukrainian forces are conducting an effective defence in depth along the frontline, inflicting significant losses upon Russian forces while slowly giving ground but preventing the Russian military from making more rapid gains on the battlefield.
• Ukrainian forces do face serious operational challenges and constraints, which are providing Russian forces with opportunities to pursue tactically significant gains.
• Russian forces do not have the available manpower and materiel to continue intensified offensive efforts indefinitely, however, and current Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine will likely culminate in the coming months, if not weeks, as Ukrainian officials and ISW have previously assessed.
• Russian forces have recently made notable tactical gains but have not demonstrated a capacity to seize operationally significant objectives.
• The Russian military command prepared the ongoing Russian summer 2024 offensive operation for months in advance and accumulated operational reserves and resources for the operation that the recent months of attritional fighting have likely heavily degraded.
• Russian forces have reportedly committed a significant portion of their intended operational reserves to offensive operations in Donetsk and northern Kharkiv oblasts, indicating that the Russian military command may have prioritised forming operational reserves to support offensive operations in priority sectors of the frontline over developing theatre-wide strategic reserves for the entire offensive campaign in Ukraine.
• The Russian military command is continuing to prioritise offensive operations in priority sectors of the frontline over long-term planning for Russia's theatre-wide campaign in Ukraine, but the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast appears to have significantly complicated the development of Russia's operational reserves.
• Russian leader Vladimir Putin appears to be using the "Time of Heroes" veteran support program to militarise regional and local government administrations and further solidify a pro-war ideology into the Russian state and society.
• Russian authorities continue to arrest Russian officials on charges related to mismanagement and corruption within the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD).
• Strikes reportedly targeted an ammunition depot near Russia's Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia Province, Syria overnight on 2 to 3 October.
• Russian forces recently advanced south of Siversk and east and southeast of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian authorities continue to nationalise Russian enterprises for the benefit of the federal government.

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