Lack of money and human resources will force Putin to change the way he wages war – ISW

Economic problems and a lack of human resources may force Russian leader Vladimir Putin to make important decisions about how to provide resources for Russia's war or change the way it is waged to preserve the stability of his regime.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: The ISW reported that the cost of maintaining the war will increase as Russia continues to spend human resources and material resources at the line of contact. Russia's resources are limited, and Putin cannot ignore these costs indefinitely. The Russian economy will reach a point of burnout. This meltdown will take a huge toll on Russian society, which may force Putin to make important decisions about how to provide resources for Russia's war or change the way it is waged to preserve the stability of his regime.

Russia’s economy and war effort are under growing strain, presenting increasingly serious challenges for President Vladimir Putin in sustaining the war over the long term.

In a report on 27 October, The Washington Post said that Russia's economy faces the risk of "overheating", as excessive military spending has driven economic growth in a way that forces companies to raise salaries to remain competitive with high military pay.

Russian Central Bank Head Elvira Nabiullina warned in July 2024 that the country’s labour force and its production capacities are "almost exhausted."

The Washington Post noted that private Russian companies are struggling to compete with military salaries, increasingly being forced to offer wages several times above typical industry averages.

The ISW recently noted that regional authorities have sharply increased one-off sign-on bonuses for contract soldiers to maintain the pace of force generation of around 30,000 troops monthly. This underscores that Russia’s manpower pool is finite, as the country grapples with rising costs – both financial and social – to replenish forces on the line of contact.

Putin likely views another partial mobilisation or a general mobilisation as too politically costly for his regime. Consequently, he has turned to crypto-mobilisation strategies, which are putting more and more pressure on Russia’s wartime economy. 

The recent arrival of North Korean troops in Russia, reportedly deployed to the combat zone in Kursk Oblast, further highlights the precariousness of Putin's entire system for generating military forces.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 27 October:

• Russia's economy and war effort is coming under increasing strain, which will pose increasingly acute challenges to Russian leader Vladimir Putin's ability to sustain the war over the long term.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces both advanced within the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast.
• Russian forces advanced in and near Selydove and northwest of Vuhledar.
• Russian authorities are using Cossack organisations to militarise Russian children and build out Russia's force generation reserve in the long term.

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