Vuhledar seizure unlikely to significantly alter Russia's operations in Donetsk Oblast – ISW

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have stated that the occupation of Vuhledar is unlikely to significantly alter the course of offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast, as the city is not a particularly important logistical hub.

Source: ISW

Quote: "Russian forces likely seized Vuhledar as of 1 October following a reported Ukrainian withdrawal from the settlement, though it is unclear if Russian forces will make rapid gains beyond Vuhledar in the immediate future."

Details: Geolocated footage from 30 September and 1 October shows Russian forces planting flags and moving freely in parts of Vuhledar. On 1 October, Russian military bloggers claimed that Russian forces had taken control of the settlement. 

A Ukrainian soldier mentioned that some Ukrainian units carried out a planned retreat from Vuhledar to avoid being surrounded. Russian bloggers reported that Ukrainian troops started withdrawing at the end of 30 September.

Russia's capture of Vuhledar follows two and a half years of unsuccessful and costly attacks on the area. 

There were at least two major Russian offensives to take Vuhledar in late 2022 and early 2023, both of which led to significant losses in soldiers and equipment, particularly for the 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade.

Despite the capture, some Russian sources are doubtful that this will lead to rapid progress or significant breakthroughs on the battlefield. 

Military bloggers pointed out that Ukrainian defences northeast of Vuhledar remain strong and that Russian forces need to fully secure the settlement before using it as a base for future attacks.

Quote: "ISW previously assessed that Russia's seizure of Vuhledar is unlikely to fundamentally alter the course of offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast, largely because Vuhledar is not a particularly crucial logistics node and because Russian forces have controlled most of the main roads running into Vuhledar prior to 1 October, meaning that Russian forces have already had the ability to interdict Ukrainian logistics in this part of the front to some extent."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 1 October:

• Russian forces likely seized Vuhledar as of 1 October following a reported Ukrainian withdrawal from the settlement, though it is unclear if Russian forces will make rapid gains beyond Vuhledar in the immediate future.
• Some Russian sources expressed doubts that Russian forces would be able to rapidly advance and achieve operationally-significant breakthroughs immediately after seizing Vuhledar.
• Ukrainian officials continue to highlight how Ukraine is reducing Russia's battlefield artillery ammunition advantage, likely in part due to recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian ammunition depots.
• The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (UN OHCHR) issued its June-August 2024 report detailing Ukrainian civilian casualties, systemic Russian mistreatment of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) and limited Ukrainian mistreatment of Russian POWs. The UN OHCHR report highlighted the difference between official Russian and Ukrainian reactions to the mistreatment of POWs, and Russian state media largely misrepresented the report by ignoring assessments about Russia's systemic mistreatment of Ukrainian POWs.
• The Russian federal budget for 2025-2027 has carved out funding to support online platforms belonging to a prominent Kremlin propagandist and a former opposition outlet, further highlighting the Kremlin's efforts to adapt its propaganda machine to Russians’ growing reliance on social media for information.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Kreminna, Toretsk, Pokrovsk and Vuhledar.
• Russian authorities are reportedly planning to increase recruitment within Russian pre-trial detention centres.

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