Russian actions on Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia border do not indicate major offensive – ISW

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have noted that Russian forces have resumed offensive operations at the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts and have achieved some tactical successes. However, this currently does not appear to be part of a larger-scale operational offensive effort.

Source: ISW

Details: Russian forces have recently resumed tactical offensive operations along the border areas of Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts and achieved some localised gains. However, these attacks do not seem to be part of a broader operational offensive aimed at supporting the wider Russian offensive in western Donetsk Oblast.

Quote from ISW: "These tactical gains are not the result of a sudden or unexpected Russian breakthrough."

Details: In early October, Russian forces resumed activity in a previously quiet sector of the front near the village of Kamianske in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, south of Stepnohirsk. However, these efforts have been limited, leading to only minor tactical gains.

It is possible that Russian forces are reactivating in these quieter areas of Ukraine’s south to divert Ukrainian attention from their main offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast, aiming to pin down Ukrainian troops along the southern front and prevent them from being redeployed to support the defence in Donetsk.

Quote from ISW: "ISW has not observed reports that Russian forces are conducting notably large assaults in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, however, or accumulating manpower and materiel for an intensified offensive effort comparable to the Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine. 

Russian forces, on the contrary, have redeployed forces that were previously in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area and elsewhere in southern Ukraine to respond to Ukraine’s incursion in Kursk."

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