Russians intensify activity in Kursk Oblast to try to push Ukrainian forces out before weather worsens – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has reported that Russian troops intensified counterattacks in Russia’s Kursk Oblast on 10 and 11 October to try to push Ukrainian forces out before deteriorating weather conditions limit their manoeuvres on the battlefield.

Source: ISW

Details: The ISW analysed reports by Russian military bloggers about intensified attacks and alleged Russian advances near a number of settlements in Kursk Oblast.

At the same time, ISW emphasised that the analysts themselves had not seen any evidence of the alleged Russian advance in Sudzha district, the alleged driving out of Ukrainian forces from most of Glushkovo district on 10 and 11 October, or the alleged encirclement of Ukrainian troops in Korenevo district.

Quote: "Intensified Russian counterattacks likely aim to push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast before poor weather conditions in Fall 2024 and early Winter 2024-2025 begin to constrain battlefield manoeuvre. 

Ukrainian officials have previously noted that Russian forces are intensifying offensive operations in Ukraine, particularly mechanised offensive operations, to take advantage of dry road and terrain conditions before rainy seasonal weather causes muddy ground conditions. It is likely that this Russian operational calculus also extends to the Russian effort to recapture all of Kursk Oblast."

Details: ISW predicted that Russian military commanders might be concerned that poor weather conditions in the autumn of 2024 and the early winter of 2024-2025 will facilitate positional fighting in Kursk Oblast and give Ukrainian forces more time to better entrench themselves in their positions.

Quote: "Better-entrenched Ukrainian forces with more extensive fortifications in Kursk Oblast will likely further complicate Russian efforts to push Ukrainian forces back across the border.

Russian forces may perceive a closing window of opportunity to eliminate the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast with the current level of manpower and materiel that the Russian military has allocated to the effort."

More details: ISW noted that Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, previously stated that since the start of the Kursk operation on 6 August 2024, Russian troops had redeployed around 50,000 troops from other fronts to Kursk Oblast, and that the Russian military command was likely seeking to avoid deploying more personnel to the area in case the Ukrainian presence continues until 2025.

He also emphasised that such redeployments might have weakened Russian forces in Ukraine’s Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv oblasts.

Analysts believe that the Russian military command is likely seeking to quickly push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast to free up combat power for offensive operations on the Pokrovsk front and in the western part of Donetsk Oblast, which are priorities for Russia.

Quote: "Russian forces have yet to make rapid gains in Kursk Oblast since starting counterattacks on September 10, however, and intensified counterattacks threaten to exhaust and degrade the very combat power that the Russian military hopes to recommit to the priority offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast."

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