Record number of Russians want end of war with Ukraine – Russian media
On the second anniversary of the announcement of mobilisation in Russia, a record number of Russians are in favour of compromise and an end to Russia's unprovoked war against Ukraine, according to the results of polls conducted by two projects, Chronicle and ExtremeScan.
Source: Russian media outlet Holod
Quote: "The number of supporters of a truce with Ukraine among Russians has reached an absolute maximum - 49% of respondents expressed their readiness to support a peace agreement, even if the goals of the special military operation [as Russians substitute the term war - ed.] remain unfulfilled. 33% of respondents are against such a decision, and 18% cannot answer this question."
Results of the poll: If Vladimir Putin decides to withdraw Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine and starts ceasefire negotiations without achieving the original goals of the military operation, would you support or not support such a decision?
Details: It is also reported that 63% of respondents would like to reach peace within a year.
The ExtremeScan study reports some regions are even more in favour of ending the war than the traditional "protest centres" of Moscow and St Petersburg.
Among the regions studied, the lowest support for the war is in the Chechen Republic - only 39% of respondents said they supported the special military operation, followed by the Tuvan People's Republic (48%), and a slightly higher level of support in St Petersburg - 50%.
The sociologists emphasise that the same regions (Chechen Republic, Tuvan People's Republic and St Petersburg) have the largest number of respondents who refused to answer this question. The media outlet points out that this may indicate that the level of support for the war in these regions is even lower.
ExtremeScan reports that the strongest support for the war is in the oblasts closest to the war zone - Belgorod Oblast (63%) and Krasnodar Krai (62%).
It is also reported that fewer and fewer Russians are ready to fight. In particular, from February 2023 to September 2024, the number of those who are not ready to go to war, either voluntarily or by order of the Russian Ministry of Defence, increased by 9%. Also, the share of those who were ready to go to war a year and a half ago, if mobilised, decreased by 10 percentage points.
The sociologists report that the most outstanding readiness for mobilisation among men is expressed by citizens aged 50 to 60, i.e. those who are least likely to be mobilised, as under Russian law, the age limit for regular soldiers is 50.
Only 6.6% of Russians aged 18-24, who are more likely to be mobilised, are ready to go to war if ordered to do so.
Most Russians are also not ready to condemn anyone for refusing to participate in military operations: 51% of respondents said they would treat such people with understanding, 27% would condemn them, and 22% could not answer the question.
After the operation of the Armed Forces in Russiaʼs Kursk Oblast, 57% of Russians surveyed assessed the possibility of a new mobilisation as high, while 28% considered it low. Against this backdrop, 53% of respondents say that the primary task of the Russian army is to liberate Kursk Oblast, not to advance deeper into Ukraine.
Answering the question, "Which of the following events would you like to see happen in the next year?" (several options were available), only 22% named a new wave mobilisation.
50% of Russians said they would like to see relations with Western countries restored, 54% would like to see an increase in budget spending on the army, 63% would like to see a peace treaty with Ukraine with mutual concessions, and 65% would like to see sanctions against Russia lifted. 85% of respondents hope that the government will focus on solving internal social and economic problems in the coming year.
Quote: "However, the most desirable option is still the completion of the New Strategic Arms Agreement upon achievement of its goals - 86% of respondents supported this option. Sociologists attribute such a high level of support for this option to the unwillingness of some Russians to lose, even if they are wrong, and to the fact that approximately 20% of Russians are still pro-war, and victory without any concessions is important to them. However, 63% of respondents are ready for peace with mutual concessions, which is the maximum since the beginning of the war."
The Chronicle project's research was conducted by telephone survey from 10 to 17 September. The sample size was 800 people over the age of 18. The study's confidence interval (the interval that most likely contains the truth) is 95%, with a maximum measurement error of 3.45%.
From 29 July to 6 September, ExtremeScan Group conducted 11 surveys: one all-Russian survey and ten within the country's oblasts - Moscow, St Petersburg, Sverdlovsk Oblast, Krasnodar Krai, Belgorod Oblast, the Republics of Bashkortostan, Dagestan, Chechnya, Tuvan People's Republic and Buryatia. The sample size of each survey was 500 people (a total of 5,500 respondents). The maximum measurement error in comparing oblasts is 4.38%, with a confidence interval of 95%.
It is noted that due to rounding, the sum of the percentages may slightly differ from 100%.
Holod emphasises that in times of war, it is impossible to trust the results of public opinion polls fully, as "Russians may be afraid to oppose the position dictated by the state and propaganda".
Why it matters: The goals of the Russian war in Ukraine have been constantly changing. The Russian authorities have used the word "goals" many times, but no one has clearly stated them. At various times, Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin and his henchmen have claimed the alleged need to "demilitarise" and "denazify" Ukraine, as well as to "protect the people of Donbas". They have also repeatedly invented some imaginary threats from NATO and the alleged need to defend Russia. It is likely that even in the third year of the war, the Russians do not understand the "main goals of the special military operation".
Russian-controlled Russian Public Opinion Research Center reports that 43% of Russians believe that the war started to protect Russia from NATO, one in five thinks that Russia is defending the so-called "republics" [Russian-occupied territories - ed.] of Donbas, and another 15% believe that Russia wants to cleanse Ukraine of Nazis.
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