Russians intensify offensive on Vuhledar and will not slow down quickly – ISW

Russian troops have significantly intensified their offensive operations in the vicinity of Vuhledar (Donetsk Oblast) and have achieved minor tactical success in the area so far. By doing so, the Russians want to increase pressure on the Ukrainian military and create conditions for further successes on the Pokrovsk front.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Recently, Russian forces have escalated their longstanding offensive operations aimed at eliminating the broad Ukrainian salient positioned to the west and south-west of Donetsk, and advancing towards and along the H-15 road (connecting Donetsk and the city of Zaporizhzhia).

There appear to be coordinated Russian offensives extending from the southern flank of the Pokrovsk front to the western edge of the Ukrainian defences around Vuhledar. These manoeuvres likely seek to increase pressure on Ukrainian troops defending the western part of Donetsk Oblast and to create conditions for further advances in Russia’s main offensive push on the Pokrovsk front.

Russian forces are also intensifying their attacks in other areas south-west and west of Donetsk. The increased activity near Vuhledar does not necessarily suggest a reduced offensive pace in other parts of western part of Donetsk Oblast in the near future.

On 4 September, a Ukrainian airborne brigade operating south-west of Donetsk released video footage showing Ukrainian forces successfully repelling a reinforced Russian mechanised assault, consisting of four tanks and 17 armoured vehicles, near Kostiantynivka.

Shortly after expanding the southern flank of the Pokrovsk salient, Russian troops intensified their offensive operations near Vuhledar, indicating an intent to conduct mutually supporting attacks on the southern flank of the Pokrovsk salient, directly west of Donetsk, along the 0-0532 road, and near Vuhledar.

It is likely that the Russian command is aiming to capture Kurakhove and Vuhledar to secure tactical advantages along the H-15 road more swiftly, although they are expected to encounter significant challenges.

The Russian military leadership remains focused on the offensive against Pokrovsk, likely viewing the increased activity in western part of Donetsk Oblast as a secondary priority. Regardless of the outcome, these secondary efforts are probably intended to fix Ukrainian forces in the western part of Donetsk Oblast and prevent them from being redeployed to strengthen the defence of Pokrovsk.

Russian forces are unlikely to maintain their momentum across Ukraine’s east for an extended period. The repeated surges in offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast, coupled with the ongoing pressure caused by Ukraine's operations in Kursk Oblast, are likely to force the Russian offensive to culminate sooner than its military command expects.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 5 September: 

• Russian forces have recently intensified their longstanding offensive effort to eliminate the broad Ukrainian salient west and southwest of the city of Donetsk and advance up to and along the H-15 (Donetsk - Zaporizhzhia) road.
• Apparently coordinated Russian offensive operations from the southern flank of the Pokrovsk front to the western flank of the Ukrainian defence around Vuhledar likely aim to increase pressure on Ukrainian forces defending in western Donetsk Oblast and set conditions for further gains in Russia's prioritised offensive effort on the Pokrovsk front.
• Russian forces are conducting relatively intensified offensive operations elsewhere southwest and west of the city of Donetsk, and the intensification of Russian offensive operations near Vuhledar likely does not presage decreased Russian offensive tempo elsewhere in western Donetsk Oblast in the near-term.
• Russian forces intensified offensive operations near Vuhledar shortly after starting to widen the southern flank of the Pokrovsk salient, suggesting that Russian forces intend to conduct mutually reinforcing offensive operations along the southern flank of the Pokrovsk front, immediately west of the city of Donetsk City, along the 0-0532 road, and near Vuhledar.
• The Russian military command likely aims for the intended seizure of Kurakhove and Vuhledar to allow Russian forces to make more rapid tactical gains up to and along the H-15 road, although Russian forces will likely face challenges in leveraging the envisioned seizure of these settlements to eliminate the broad Ukrainian salient in western Donetsk Oblast.
• The Russian military command continues to prioritise the offensive effort on Pokrovsk and will likely treat the intensified effort in western Donetsk Oblast as a secondary effort. The Russian military command likely intends for this secondary effort, regardless of its success, to fix Ukrainian forces in western Donetsk Oblast and prevent Ukrainian redeployments to reinforce the defence of Pokrovsk.
• Russian leader Vladimir Putin continues to downplay the theatre-wide operational impacts of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and continues efforts to convince the Russian people that the Kremlin's delayed and disorganised response to the Kursk incursion is an acceptable price to pay for further Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast.
• The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast has had theatre-wide impacts and these impacts will likely continue to affect Russian offensive and defensive capabilities beyond the culmination of the Pokrovsk offensive.
• Putin's informational efforts are likely intended to convince the Russian public that an ongoing Ukrainian presence in Kursk Oblast is tolerable in exchange for the Russian seizure of Pokrovsk.
• Russian offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast do not portend the imminent collapse of the frontline throughout Ukraine, despite Putin's efforts to portray the advances in Donetsk Oblast as dramatic.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar, southeast of Kupiansk, and on the Kherson front, and Ukrainian forces recently regained positions north of the city of Kharkiv.
• Russian forces continue to forcibly redeploy mobilised Russian military personnel from occupied Ukraine to frontline positions to bolster Russia's crypto-mobilisation efforts.

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