Power outages in Ukraine may last from 12 to 20 hours in winter – analysts

Optimistic scenarios predict that during the autumn-winter period, power outages in Ukraine will last up to 12 hours a day, while pessimistic scenarios foresee outages lasting up to 20 hours.

Source: Ukraine's Centre for Countering Disinformation on Facebook 

Details: Yurii Korolchuk, an expert from the Institute for Energy Strategies, forecasts several scenarios for the energy situation in the autumn-winter period, depending on how events unfold.

According to the optimistic forecast, if eight or nine nuclear power plant units operate steadily and the winter is mild and without severe frosts, it is planned to restore about three out of the six gigawatts (GW) of damaged capacity. Under such circumstances, power outages lasting up to 12 hours a day are possible.

A more pessimistic scenario suggests that only about two GW of capacity will be restored, the number of operating nuclear units will be six or seven and the winter will be cold. The power system will then find itself in a crisis situation.

In the worst-case scenario, Ukrainians could spend up to 20 hours a day without electricity and heating this winter if Russia continues to attack Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

Serhii Nahorniak, a member of the Verkhovna Rada's (Ukrainian Parliament) Energy Committee, said if the temperature drops to -10°C in winter, Ukrainians are highly likely to have electricity for only 12–14 hours a day, spending the remaining 10 hours or so without power.

The Centre noted that great hopes are pinned on Western assistance. During an official visit to the USA, the Ukrainian delegation reached agreements with US officials and business representatives on a strategy for the rapid restoration and modernisation of Ukraine's energy system. Specifically, to strengthen energy security, the USA provided Ukraine with a financial assistance package worth US$800 million.

Quote: "However, alongside government measures, it is advisable for businesses and citizens to take care of backup power systems (power banks, charging stations, diesel generators, solar panels and inverters) to confidently endure emergency power outages."

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