Putin believes Russian can slowly subsume Ukraine – ISW

Russian leader Vladimir Putin believes that Russia can slowly absorb Ukraine through a gradual offensive and exhaust Ukrainian forces.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Military experts believe that although the Ukrainian operation in Russia’s Kursk Oblast appears to have had an impact on the Russian military at operational level, it has not changed the strategic thinking of Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

The ISW noted that Putin believes that Russia can slowly subsume Ukraine through a gradual offensive and that Russia can achieve its goals through a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces.

These assessments make Putin unwilling to negotiate peace on terms other than capitulation by Ukraine and the West to his demands.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 3 September:

• Russian forces struck civilian infrastructure and a military educational facility in Poltava City with two Iskander-M ballistic missiles, killing and wounding a significant number of people, as part of a wider strike series on the night of 2-3 September.
• The wider impacts of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast on the war and any envisioned diplomatic solution to the war are not yet clear, and assessments of these impacts are premature.
• Attempts to assess the impacts of the Ukrainian incursion at this premature stage will likely come to partial and inaccurate conclusions about Ukraine's ability to change the trajectory of the war and the Kremlin's appetite for peace negotiations on acceptable terms.
• Reuters reported that the US is considering providing Ukraine with long range Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSMs) but that Ukraine would not receive the missiles for months.
• Russian leader Vladimir Putin concluded his trip to Mongolia by signing agreements that strengthen bilateral economic ties and trilateral energy relations between Russia, Mongolia, and the People's Republic of China (PRC).
• South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and People's Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping issued a joint statement praising each other’s purported efforts to address the war in Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk and southwest of the city of Donetsk.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to advertise Russian military service to civilians in occupied Ukraine.

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