Gas transit from Azerbaijan won't protect Ukrainian gas transmission system from Russian attacks

The transit of Azerbaijani gas through Ukraine to Europe will not protect the Ukrainian gas transmission system (GTS) from Russian attacks.

Source: Serhii Makohon, head of the Ukrainian Gas Transmission System Operator for 2019-2022, reports Interfax-Ukraine

Quote from Serhii Makohon, during a press conference at the Media Centre Ukraine in Kyiv: "There is an argument that the Russians will not attack Ukraine's gas transmission system as long as Azerbaijani gas is being transited. What is their interest in not hitting it if it is really Azerbaijani gas? The only argument is that it will be Russian gas, even under the guise of Azerbaijani gas." 

Details: At the same time, he noted that even under such circumstances, the Russians will not stop in their intentions to destroy Ukraine's energy sector, including gas, as the transit pipeline is only part of Ukraine's extensive and powerful gas transportation system: "But we have no guarantees that the Russians will not attack the GTS while maintaining transit".

Quote from Serhii Makohon: "They have already spent US$15 billion to damage our energy sector, and there have been six waves of missile attacks on the GTS in the west of Ukraine. Yes, there were no such attacks on the GTS, such as on thermal power plants, but this does not mean they spared it. They simply do not have enough missiles."

At the same time, he drew attention to the fact that even with significant damage to the GTS, it can perform its functions, for which various relevant response scenarios have been developed.

Serhii Makohon reports that it would still make sense to continue gas transit from Russia, even under the guise of Azerbaijani gas, if Ukraine, for its part, set certain conditions, such as the return of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and guarantees not to attack the power grid.

Quote from Serhii Makohon: "And if we are now being offered transit of allegedly Azerbaijani gas, and everyone understands that it is actually Russian gas, then it seems to me that this is just a deal that will allow the Russians to continue to earn US$5 billion annually, which they will use to strengthen their armaments."

Serhii Makohon emphasised that to replace the 14 billion cubic metres currently exported from Russia to Europe via Ukraine, Azerbaijan would need to double its gas exports, which it does not have the capacity to do.

Makohon also believes that Europe is not interested in continuing transit from Russia. It intends to get rid of Russian gas by 2027, the share of which has already decreased from 45% to 15% in recent years, and Ukrainian transit accounts for only 5% of total European imports. 

Background: Ukraine is negotiating natural gas supplies from Azerbaijan to the European Union, seeking to maintain its role as a transit country and help its Western neighbours guarantee energy security.

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