Russian offensives near Vuhledar and Pokrovsk aim to stretch Ukrainian forces – ISW

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have pointed out that Russian offensive efforts near the settlements of Vuhledar and Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast are mutually reinforcing and are likely intended to stretch Ukrainian forces on a wider front in Donetsk Oblast.

Source: ISW

Quote: "Russian forces have reached the outskirts of Vuhledar amid what appears to be an intensified offensive push near the settlement, but the capture of Vuhledar is unlikely to afford Russian forces any particular operational edge for further offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast."

Details: Russian forces are also attempting to advance on the north-eastern flank of Vuhledar through Vodiane and on the south-western flank through Prechystivka, likely in an attempt to encircle the Ukrainian group in Vuhledar and force it to retreat.

Quote: "Western media and Ukrainian military experts and journalists widely warned on 23 and 24 September that constant Russian assaults and advances on the flanks of Vuhledar are threatening to encircle the Ukrainian garrison within the settlement, which may force Ukrainian troops to withdraw from the area, which has been an important Ukrainian stronghold for over two years."

"If the Ukrainian command decides that the risk of a Russian encirclement of Vuhledar or the costs of defending the settlement itself in urban combat are too great, Ukrainian forces may withdraw, allowing Russian forces to seize Vuhledar relatively rapidly and without engaging in close combat fighting.

If Ukrainian forces decide to defend Vuhledar and can prevent Russian efforts to envelop or encircle it, however. Russian forces may struggle to fight through a settlement that Ukrainian forces have had over two years to fortify."

More details: Experts added that if the Russians do not capture the settlement relatively quickly, the manoeuvre of Russian troops on the flanks of Vuhledar may also be affected by the onset of autumn rains, which will significantly complicate the Russians’ advance through the predominantly rural area around Vuhledar as it becomes swampy.

The ISW noted that Russia has made at least two major offensive attempts to capture Vuhledar in late 2022 and early 2023, both of which resulted in significant losses of Russian personnel and equipment, while giving Ukrainian forces the opportunity to further fortify the settlement and observe how the Russian group in the area plans and conducts offensive operations.

Quote: "Russia's potential seizure of Vuhledar is unlikely to fundamentally alter the course of offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast, however.

Vuhledar is not a particularly crucial logistics node – Russian forces already control most of the main roads running into Vuhledar (the T0509 Vuhledar-Prechystivka road, the C050524 Pavlivka-Vuhledar road, and the T0524 Vuhledar-Marinka road) and are likely already credibly threatening the C051134 route into Bohoiavlenka with close range artillery fires, so the capture of the settlement would not immediately offer Russian forces access to a new roadway, nor cut Ukrainian forces off from a roadway that is crucial to their logistical supply.

The potential seizure of Vuhledar will also not necessarily afford Russian forces a beneficial position from which to launch subsequent offensive operations elsewhere in western Donetsk Oblast."

Details: ISW's early assessment is that the Russian offensives near Vuhledar and Pokrovsk are mutually reinforcing and intended to stretch Ukrainian forces on a broader front in Donetsk Oblast. Nevertheless, a hypothetical Russian capture of Vuhledar would not necessarily be operationally significant enough to stretch Ukrainian forces further in the area.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 24 September:  

• Russian forces have reached the outskirts of Vuhledar amid what appears to be an intensified offensive push near the settlement, but the capture of Vuhledar is unlikely to afford Russian forces any particular operational edge for further offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast.
• Recent Ukrainian strikes against Russian rear ammunition depots demonstrate the extent to which Russian military logistics still benefit from Western-provided sanctuary that secures Russia’s rear.
• Russia continues to expand and leverage its bilateral relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in order to support its war effort in Ukraine.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) has failed to appease the Russian ultranationalist milblogger community by downplaying the Russian military command’s responsibility for its insistence on misusing technical specialists in infantry-led frontal assaults in Ukraine’s east.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced west of the Kursk Oblast salient.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced within Vovchansk and in eastern Toretsk.
• Russian news outlet Meduza, citing its own conversations with various unspecified Russian officials close to the Russian Presidential Administration, a source in the federal government, and regional officials, reported on 24 September that mobilisation is a very sensitive topic among Kremlin officials.

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