Russia to face shortage of weapons for its war against Ukraine – ISW

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have pointed out that Russia will face a shortage of weapons and material resources for its war against Ukraine and will deepen its dependence on foreign partners in this matter.

Source: ISW

Quote: "Russia will likely face growing challenges in the production and procurement of the materiel that Russian operations in Ukraine require, and the Kremlin will likely become increasingly reliant on foreign partners to meet its materiel needs."

Details: The analysts noted that the Russian military was relying heavily on the refurbishment of Soviet-era weapons and military equipment, especially armoured vehicles, to maintain the momentum of its offensive operations in Ukraine.

Quote: "The Russian government will likely have to further mobilise the Russian economy and defence industry and invest in capacity building if the Russian military intends to sustain its current tempo of operations in the medium- to long-term as Russia depletes its finite Soviet stockpiles, but it is unclear if the Russian defence industry will be able to produce enough to sustain the high level of equipment losses that Russian forces suffer in Ukraine even with further economic mobilisation."

Details: ISW has previously assessed that Russia's efforts to expand its defence industry are unlikely to be sustainable in the medium to long term due to the expected shortage of labour and the impact of Western sanctions.

Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, Head of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, drew attention to North Korea's role as Russia's most influential military ally.

He noted that the supply of North Korean artillery ammunition to Russia had had a direct and rapid impact on the dynamics of the war, with Ukrainian troops experiencing an increase in the pace of Russian operations within days of the arrival of North Korean artillery ammunition.

North Korea has reportedly supplied 4.8 million pieces of artillery ammunition to Russia as of June 2024.

Quote: "North Korean support has previously enabled Russia to maintain significant artillery advantages over Ukraine, and Russia has used these advantages to support consistent offensive operations designed to prevent Ukrainian forces from being able to contest the initiative."

More details: ISW pointed out that Russian authorities had recently stepped up military cooperation with North Korea, as demonstrated by the visit by Sergei Shoigu, Chairman of the Russian Security Council, to Pyongyang on 13 September and Putin's visit in June 2024, when Putin signed an agreement on a comprehensive strategic partnership with North Korean President Kim Jong Un.

The experts noted that the deepening of Russia's military partnership with North Korea symbolises the relations that Russia seeks to build with Iran, the People's Republic of China, and other desired partners.

Quote: "Russia will likely face dwindling weapons and equipment stockpiles and struggle to offset these shortages unless it can circumvent Western sanctions at scale and significantly expand its engagements with foreign partners to obtain sufficient military materiel, component parts, and dual-use items."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 15 September:  

• Russia reportedly aims to achieve a decisive victory in Ukraine by 2026 before likely medium- to long-term economic and force generation constraints begin to significantly degrade Russia's ability to sustain its war effort in Ukraine.
• Russia will likely face growing challenges in the production and procurement of the materiel that Russian operations in Ukraine require, and the Kremlin will likely become increasingly reliant on foreign partners to meet its materiel needs.
• Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Oleksandr Kamyshin stated on 15 September that Ukraine has started domestic serial production of 155mm artillery shells.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) promptly responded to ultranationalists' outcry surrounding the controversial deaths of two drone operators in Ukraine, highlighting how Russian authorities continue to be highly attentive to backlash from the ultranationalist community.
• Russian ultranationalist milbloggers praised the Russian MoD's response to the drone operators' deaths but expressed concern about the MoD's ability to solve the systemic issues that led to the deaths.
• Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz Commander Apty Alaudinov aggravated Kremlin efforts to conduct prisoner of war (POW) exchanges for soldiers who defended against the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast while balancing his attempts to appeal to both the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) and hardline facets of Chechen society.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced in Glushkovo district, Kursk Oblast, and Russian forces reportedly recently recaptured territory in the area as of 15 September. Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations throughout their salient in Kursk Oblast, and Russian forces recently advanced in the salient.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Svatove, Siversk, and the city of Donetsk.
• Russian authorities continue to strengthen coercive mechanisms to support ongoing crypto-mobilisation efforts in order to avoid conducting a wider mobilisation.  

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