Russia will have to deploy more troops to Kursk to counterattack – ISW

Russian troops continue to counterattack through the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast, but the Russian military may have to redeploy additional units from other parts of the theatre to Kursk Oblast to create a force grouping capable of conducting a sustained counteroffensive. 

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW) 

Quote: "ISW continues to track observable Russian counterattacks in Kursk Oblast but has not yet observed large-scale combat operations indicating that Russian forces have started a large-scale concerted counteroffensive operation aimed at completely expelling Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast." 

Details: On 13 September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that Russian forces had begun counteroffensive operations in Kursk Oblast. A day earlier, on 12 September, Pentagon spokesperson Major General Patrick Ryder indicated that the US had observed Russian units making attempts to launch what he described as a "marginal" counteroffensive. 

Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets said there were an estimated 33,000 to 35,000 Russian troops stationed in Kursk Oblast as of 13 September. 

Zelenskyy also mentioned that the Russian military leadership intends to concentrate between 60,000 and 70,000 soldiers in the oblast — significantly exceeding the 50,000 troops that US officials estimate Russia would need to drive Ukrainian forces out of the oblast. 

Up to this point, Russian authorities have predominantly relied on inadequately trained and poorly equipped conscripts, supported by smaller units of regular and irregular troops, to counter Ukraine’s advances in Kursk. It is unlikely that the bulk of the current Russian forces in the oblast consist of experienced combat troops. 

A successful Russian counteroffensive to retake Kursk Oblast would almost certainly require even more manpower and resources than those already deployed — particularly considering that many of the units already in the area lack sufficient combat experience. Russian airborne forces recently moved to Kursk Oblast from the front lines in Ukraine and are currently responsible for spearheading counterattacks in the oblast.

This suggests that the Russian military leadership may intend to deploy units considered more "elite" or capable of recapturing territory.

The Russian military will undoubtedly be forced to redeploy units already engaged in offensive operations or operational reserves from Ukraine to Kursk Oblast to form the combat-ready units needed to conduct a major counteroffensive operation and then guard the border against incursion.

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 13 September:

• The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast has reportedly spoiled planned Russian offensive operations along the international border area that likely aimed to expand the area of active combat operations across a broader front in northeastern Ukraine.
• Russian forces continue to counterattack throughout the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast, but the Russian military will likely have to redeploy additional elements from elsewhere in the theatre to Kursk Oblast to establish a force grouping capable of pursuing a sustained counteroffensive operation.
• Russian forces appear to be testing more effective mechanised assault tactics west of the city of Donetsk, although Russian armoured vehicles remain vulnerable to Ukrainian strike and drone capabilities.
• Ukraine and Russia conducted their second prisoner of war (POW) exchange since the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast on 13 September.
• Russia continues efforts to strengthen strategic military ties with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), North Korea, and Iran to support its war effort in Ukraine.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast amid continued Russian and Ukrainian assaults in the area on 13 September.
• Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Kupiansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
• Russian authorities continue attempts to coerce minorities and Ukrainian youth living in occupied Ukraine to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defence (MoD) to avoid conducting a wider mobilisation.

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