Russians to face significant challenges in counterattacks in Kursk Oblast – ISW

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have noted minor advances by Russian forces in Kursk Oblast, in areas that are not fully controlled by Ukraine's defence forces. However, they have emphasised that Russian troops are likely to face greater difficulties in further attempts to counterattack in areas still under Ukrainian control.

Source: ISW

Quote: "Russian forces continued counterattacking throughout the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on 12 September but made only marginal gains, likely due to continued Ukrainian offensive operations and defensive counterattacks in the area."

Details: Geolocated footage published on 12 September shows that Russian forces have made slight progress west of Vishnevka (southwest of Korenevo) and in the northern part of  Krasnooktyabrskoye (also southwest of Korenevo). 

The Russian Defence Ministry reported that Russian forces have retaken 10 settlements south and southwest of Korenevo since launching counterattacks on the night of 10-11 September. These settlements include Apanasovka, Byakhovo, Vishnevka, Viktorovka, Vnezapnoye, Gordeevka, Krasnooktyabrskoye, Obukhovka, Snagost and 10-y Oktyabr. 

However, all of these areas fall within previously claimed limits of Russian advances and the ISW has not visually confirmed the recapture of any settlements other than parts of Snagost and Krasnooktyabrskoye.

Additional geolocated footage, also published on 12 September, shows Ukrainian infantry crossing into southwestern part of Tetkino, around 40 km southwest of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast.

Further footage reveals Ukrainian armoured vehicles and infantry bypassing Russian dragon's teeth anti-tank defences near the Russian-Ukrainian border southwest of Novy Put (southwest of Glushkovo) without facing resistance, suggesting that Ukrainian forces have advanced in the area and that Russian forces were not ready to use these obstacles to stop cross-border attacks.

Russian sources also reported continued Ukrainian assaults near Novy Put, Medvezhye (southeast of Glushkovo), Snagost, Olgovka (east of Korenevo) and Fanaseyevka (southeast of Sudzha).

Quote: "Russian forces have so far advanced in areas of Kursk Oblast that Ukrainian forces were not yet fully controlling nor attempting to control, and Russian forces will likely face more difficulty when counterattacking further into areas of the salient where Ukrainian forces do have control."

"Ukrainian forces have not attempted to consolidate positions everywhere in their salient in Kursk Oblast, and it is likely that Ukrainian forces had fewer consolidated positions in forward areas at the edges of the salient where Russian forces have recently advanced."

"Russian counterattacks against better prepared and consolidated positions in territory where Ukrainian forces exert control will likely be far less successful than the counterattacks Russian forces launched on 10 to 11 September."

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 12 September:

• Russian forces continued counterattacking throughout the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on 12 September but made only marginal gains, likely due to continued Ukrainian offensive operations and defensive counterattacks in the area.
• Russian forces have so far advanced in areas of Kursk Oblast that Ukrainian forces were not yet fully controlling nor attempting to control, and Russian forces will likely face more difficulty when counterattacking further into areas of the salient where Ukrainian forces do have control.
• A Ukrainian HIMARS strike reportedly damaged a temporary pontoon bridge across the Seym River and wounded a group of nearby Russian troops on 12 September.
• Russian authorities have reportedly deployed additional elements of the Russian 106th Airborne (VDV) Division to Kursk Oblast and may begin redeploying more combat experienced forces to support ongoing Russian counterattacks and future counteroffensive operations against Ukrainian forces in Russia.
• The United Kingdom (UK) will reportedly allow Ukraine to use UK-provided long-range Storm Shadow missiles to strike military objects in Russia in the coming days.
• Russian leader Vladimir Putin continues rhetorical efforts aimed at influencing the ongoing Western policy debate about granting Ukraine permission to use Western-provided weapons against military objects in Russia, although Russia has not previously escalated militarily against perceived Western violations of Russia's "red lines".
• Russia continued its efforts to enhance relations with non-Western countries at the meeting of BRICS high-ranking security officials and advisors in St. Petersburg.
• Iran and Russia are downplaying their disagreement over the Zangezur Corridor project in the Caucasus.
• Russia is continuing to balance its relationships with Iran and the Gulf states.
• Russian investigative outlet Dossier Center published an investigation on 12 September into the Kremlin's efforts to consolidate its influence over the Russian information space via Telegram ahead of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently north of Chasiv Yar, southeast of Pokrovsk and west of Donetsk City.
• Former Roscosmos (Russian space agency) head and Zaporizhzhia Oblast occupation senator Dmitry Rogozin claimed on 12 September that the first group of the newly-formed "BARS-Sarmat" volunteer detachment (Russian Combat Army Reserve) signed military service contracts with the Russian Defence Ministry and are training for deployment to the frontline in Ukraine.

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