ISW analyses Russian counterattacks in Kursk Oblast

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have suggested that Russian forces intend to cut off the Ukrainian advance in Kursk Oblast ahead of a coordinated operation to push out Ukraine's defence forces.

Source: ISW

Quote: "Russian forces began counterattacks along the western edge of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast and reportedly seized several settlements northeast and south of Korenevo on 10 and 11 September. 

The size, scale, and potential prospects of the September 11 Russian counterattacks in Kursk Oblast are unclear and the situation remains fluid as of this report. It is premature to draw conclusions about Russia’s new counterattacks and ISW will continue following the situation."

Details: Geolocated footage published on 11 September suggests that Russian forces have regained positions east of Zhuravli, northeast of Korenevo. 

Some Russian sources claimed that Russian forces fully captured Snagost, though ISW has not visually confirmed these reports.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have reportedly launched fresh attacks against the Russian counteroffensive west of Snagost and across the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast.

Quote: "Available visual evidence suggests that Russian forces counterattacking in Kursk Oblast are operating in company-sized units and may be using elements of more combat-experienced units to conduct counterattacks."

"Russian forces may intend to temporarily bisect the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast before beginning a more organised and well-equipped effort to push Ukrainian forces out of Russian territory."

Details: Russian forces are currently carrying out counterattacks along the western edge of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast, an area primarily made up of fields and small settlements. 

These initial counterattacks may aim to secure more tactically advantageous positions before launching a broader counteroffensive against Ukrainian forces operating northeast of Korenevo and near Sudzha. 

Russian forces might seek to cut the Ukrainian salient and advance toward the international border southeast of Snagost, complicating Ukrainian logistics and threatening fire support positions near the border ahead of a larger-scale counteroffensive.

Quote: "It would be premature to assess the impact of two days of Russian counterattacks on the month-long Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast, particularly amid ongoing Ukrainian cross-border assaults, and ISW will continue to evaluate the impact of the Russian counterattacks in the coming days."

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 11 September:

• Russian forces began counterattacks along the western edge of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast and reportedly seized several settlements northeast and south of Korenevo on 10 and 11 September.
• Available visual evidence suggests that Russian forces counterattacking in Kursk Oblast are operating in company-sized units and may be using elements of more combat-experienced units to conduct counterattacks.
• Russian forces may intend to temporarily bisect the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast before beginning a more organised and well-equipped effort to push Ukrainian forces out of Russian territory.
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy arrived in Kyiv on 11 September and reiterated support for Ukraine but did not clarify current Western policy on Ukraine’s ability to strike military objects in Russia with Western-provided weapons.
• The People's Republic of China (PRC) continues to promote its alternative peace plan for the war in Ukraine.
• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reiterated his support for Ukraine on 11 September.
• Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Kupiansk, near Toretsk and near Pokrovsk.
• Ukrainian Kharkiv Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vitalii Sarantsev reported on 11 September that Russian forces are replenishing their tactical, operational and strategic reserves.
• Russian occupation authorities illegally held regional elections in occupied Crimea on 6 to 8 September and likely fabricated increased voter turnout numbers to claim that residents broadly support Russia's illegal occupation of Crimea.

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