Kremlin seeks intermediaries for negotiations with Ukraine – ISW

Ivashkiv Olena — Tuesday, 10 September 2024, 05:01

Sergei Lavrov and Jasem AlBudaiwi, Secretary General of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, during a meeting in Riyadh on 9 September. Photo: RIA Novosti

Kremlin officials are likely attempting to shape international peace mediation efforts in the war in Ukraine while simultaneously demonstrating Russia's unwillingness to engage in good-faith negotiations with Ukraine.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: On 9 September, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira and Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit in Saudi Arabia at a separate GCC-Russia ministerial meeting.

According to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Lavrov discussed the war in Ukraine with both counterparts, though specific details were not provided.

Brazil and China have been advocating for their six-point Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis peace plan since May 2024, which leans in favour of Russia's position.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meanwhile recently reaffirmed India’s commitment to a peaceful resolution in Ukraine based on international law, including respect for territorial integrity and state sovereignty.

Lavrov, however, repeated the usual Kremlin rhetoric that highlights Russia's reluctance to enter genuine peace talks with Ukraine. He characterised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Peace Formula, which is rooted in international law, as an "ultimatum", dismissing it as something Russia has never seriously considered.

Despite this, Ukrainian officials have extended an open invitation for a Russian representative to attend Ukraine's second peace summit scheduled for later in 2024.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 9 September:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attended the Russia-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Joint Ministerial Meeting of Strategic Dialogue in Saudi Arabia on 9 September, likely as part of Kremlin efforts to advance the creation of its envisioned "Eurasian security architecture".
Kremlin officials are likely trying to shape international peace mediation efforts in the war in Ukraine while demonstrating Russia's unwillingness to engage in good-faith negotiations with Ukraine.
The Kremlin leveraged Russian regional elections from 6 to 8 September to integrate trusted Russian military veterans of the war in Ukraine into the Russian government, likely as part of an ongoing attempt to appease Russian servicemembers, boost domestic support for the war, and build out a cadre of Kremlin-affiliated local officials.
The Kremlin refrained from replacing Acting Kursk Oblast Governor Alexei Smirnov during the Russian regional elections, likely in support of an ongoing effort to downplay the societal impacts of Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian officials continue to warn that Russian forces are increasingly using chemical weapons in Ukraine.
Russian forces recently regained lost positions in Kursk Oblast amid continued Ukrainian offensive operations in the area on 9 September.
Russian forces recently advanced along the Kupiansk-Svatove line, near Siversk, near Pokrovsk and southwest of the city of Donetsk, and Ukrainian forces recently regained positions near Siversk.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin expanded Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov’s powers on 9 September by allowing him to grant eligible parties within the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) access to Russian state secrets (classified information).

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