Russia could occupy whole of Donbas and threaten Dnipropetrovsk region in spring 2025 – The Times

Michael Clarke, visiting professor in defence studies at King’s College London, has forecast that Russian troops could capture the whole of Donetsk Oblast and threaten the Dnipropetrovsk region in the spring of 2025.

Source: an article by Clarke in British media outlet The Times

Quote: "The defenders are short of men, of ammunition and of sleep. They are giving ground, while Moscow seems ready to sacrifice an unlimited number of troops for Pokrovsk. As in Mariupol, Severodonetsk, Bakhmut and Avdiivka, Russian forces seem intent on flattening the city so as to take possession of the rubble.

The minor strategic prize for Moscow in this battle will be to take over the transport hub of Pokrovsk and the high ground at Chasiv Yar, then use them as jumping-off points for a bigger offensive north and west to seize the rest of the Donbas and threaten the Dnipropetrovsk region in the spring next year."

Details: Clarke notes that neither side is expecting a decision on the battlefield this year. They are both playing for a "big push" in the ground war in 2025.

"And they each hope that this bout of arm-wrestling will improve their chances in those battles to come, while also persuading their respective backers in the rest of the world that military success really is within their grasp. Only one of them will turn out to be right," the article says.

Clarke says Ukrainian strategists are likely hoping that the offensive in Russia’s Kursk Oblast will increase the political pressure on Russian ruler Vladimir Putin as the price of his long aggressive war becomes clearer to the Russian public.

"Attractive as that goal is to Kyiv’s leaders, they may have to accept that, in the process of achieving it, they could lose Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar. In that case, both President Zelenskyy and Oleksandr Syrskyi, his military chief, might find themselves under political pressures of their own," The Times says.

Michael Clarke is visiting professor in defence studies at King’s College London and a Distinguished Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.

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