UK Defence Intelligence assesses consequences of Ukraine sinking Russian Rostov-na-Donu submarine

In its latest review, UK Defence Intelligence has analysed the Ukrainian strike on the Russian Rostov-na-Donu submarine, which led to the submarine sinking.

Source: UK Defence Intelligence review dated 7 August on X (Twitter), as reported by European Pravda

Details: UK intelligence noted that although the attack took place in conjunction with a series of drone strikes, Ukrainian forces most likely used US-supplied ATACMS missiles.

Contrary to some reports, the submarine was likely not fully repaired after the previous Ukrainian attack on Crimea in September 2023.

UK Defence Intelligence calls this attack "the final chapter for the submarine", as it would be more cost-effective to build a new submarine than to refurbish and repair it.

Although the sinking of the submarine is a significant morale boost for Ukrainian forces, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on Russia's ability to launch long-range strikes against Ukraine from the Black Sea, UK intelligence noted.

"The strike does highlight the increasing risks to Russian forces in Crimea and will highly likely force Russia to reconsider any plans to relocate any significant maritime force back to the peninsula," the review said.

Background:

• In a review dated 5 August, UK Defence Intelligence suggested that the new Russian law threatening to deprive new Russian citizens of their citizenship for evading military registration will not have a large-scale impact on mobilisation.
• On 3 August, UK intelligence noted that the average daily losses of the Russians (both killed and wounded) have decreased over the past two months from the highest level in the entire period of the full-scale invasion, from more than 1,262 people per day in May to 1,140 people in July 2024.

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