Putin's willingness to hand over weapons to Houthis is way to divert Western support for Ukraine – ISW

Researchers at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have indicated that Russia’s willingness to supply weapons to the Yemeni Houthis reveals President Vladimir Putin’s strategy to compel the West to retract its support for Ukraine. This move also underscores Russia’s reliance on Iran for precision weapons and components.

Source: ISW

Details: Reports suggest that the Kremlin had intended to transfer missiles and other military equipment to the Houthis in Yemen, but this plan was halted following diplomatic interventions.

Quote: "Russia's reported plan highlights its growing military partnership with Iran and suggests that Russia likely aims to leverage Iranian proxies to indirectly confront the West and shape Western decision making."

Details: CNN reported, citing U.S. officials and other sources familiar with the matter, that Russia had prepared to deliver missiles and other military equipment to the Houthis in late July 2024. However, the plan was abandoned after diplomatic pressure from the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

U.S. officials have expressed uncertainty about whether Saudi opposition was decisive in the cancellation of the planned transfer.

CNN sources disclosed that at least three Russian military officers visited Yemen in late July 2024, possibly to advise the Houthis and assist them in live-fire exercises, which were later cancelled by the Houthis.

U.S. officials reported that Russia’s move to arm and advise the Houthis is viewed as a response to the lifting of certain U.S. restrictions on Ukraine’s use of American-supplied weapons to strike targets within Russian territory.

The report recalls that on 6 June, Putin mentioned Russia's intention to equip certain actors with the capability to launch long-range strikes against the West as a "symmetrical response" to the lifting of these restrictions.

Analysts believe that Russia’s strategy to support the Houthis in indirectly confronting the West and escalating tensions aligns with several Russian disinformation and hybrid warfare tactics aimed at pressuring the West to reconsider its support for Ukraine due to fears of further confrontation with Russia.

Quote: "Putin's willingness to consider supporting the Houthis as they attack Israel and international shipping is part of deepening Russian-Iranian military cooperation and Russia's increasing reliance on Iran for high-precision weapons and components.

Russia's deepening partnership with Iran will likely encourage Russia to consider supporting other Iranian proxies and leveraging these groups in other indirect attempts to threaten the West with escalation.

Increased Russian willingness to use Iran and its proxies to indirectly confront the West will disrupt Russian attempts to portray Russian foreign policy in the Middle East as balanced and may further complicate Russian relations with countries concerned about Russian-Iranian cooperation.

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 3 August:

• Ukrainian forces reportedly struck four Russian S-400 air defence missile launchers, an S-500 air defence system, and the Russian Black Sea Fleet's (BSF) Rostov-on-Don Kilo-class submarine in occupied Crimea on 2 August.
• Ukrainian forces also conducted a series of successful drone strikes against likely military targets in Rostov, Kursk, and Belgorod oblasts on 3 August.
• The Kremlin reportedly planned to transfer unspecified missiles and other military equipment to the Houthis in Yemen but did not transfer the materiel following diplomatic pressure. Russia's reported plan highlights its growing military partnership with Iran and suggests that Russia likely aims to leverage Iranian proxies to indirectly confront the West and shape Western decision making.
• Putin's willingness to consider supporting the Houthis as they attack Israel and international shipping is part of deepening Russian-Iranian military cooperation and Russia's increasing reliance on Iran for high-precision weapons and components.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Siversk, and Chasiv Yar.
• Russian authorities continue efforts to financially incentivize Russian military service in Ukraine.

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