Russians try to encircle Ukrainian units on Pokrovsk front again – ISW
Russian troops are currently conducting two tactical operations as part of an offensive to capture Pokrovsk and are attempting to encircle Ukrainian positions between Myrnohrad and Hrodivka (Donetsk Oblast).
Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
Details: The first tactical operation is along the Novohrodivka-Hrodivka line east of Pokrovsk, with the objective of capturing Myrnohrad and advancing to the outskirts of Pokrovsk.
The second tactical operation is taking place along the Selydove-Ukrainsk-Hirnyk line southeast of Pokrovsk. It aims to expand the Russian group of forces on the Pokrovsk front and eliminate vulnerabilities for counterattacks by Ukrainian forces.
The Russian military command probably sees both of these tactical operations as desirable preconditions for launching a fierce offensive on the town of Pokrovsk itself.
General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, stated on 29 August that the most intense fighting on the Pokrovsk front was taking place on the eastern outskirts of Hrodivka (east of Pokrovsk), southwest of Hrodivka near Krasnyi Yar, within Novohrodivka (southeast of Pokrovsk) and directly east of Selydove near Mykhailivka (southeast of Pokrovsk).
In recent days, ISW has observed Russian advances in these areas.
Recently, Russian troops surrounded Ukrainian positions southeast of Pokrovsk along the Karlivka reservoir and forced Ukrainian forces to retreat from their positions in the area.
They are likely hoping to achieve a similar effect by attempting to encircle Ukrainian positions between Myrnohrad and Hrodivka. However, it remains unclear whether Russian forces will be able to maintain a relatively rapid pace of advance through the relatively large city of Myrnohrad and its outskirts.
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 29 August:
- Russian forces are currently pursuing two immediate tactical efforts as part of their ongoing offensive operation to seize Pokrovsk – a tactical effort along the Novohrodivka-Hrodivka line east of Pokrovsk to seize Myrnohrad and advance up to Pokrovsk's outskirts, and another tactical effort along the Selydove-Ukrainsk-Hirnyk line southeast of Pokrovsk aimed at widening Russia's salient on the Pokrovsk front and eliminating vulnerabilities to Ukrainian counterattacks.
- The Russian military command likely aims to achieve both of these tactical efforts before launching the more resource-intensive effort to seize Pokrovsk itself, although Russian forces may begin urban combat in Pokrovsk regardless, if progress stalls on these preparatory efforts.
- Russian authorities are creating new volunteer territorial defence units in response to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast, highlighting Russian leader Vladimir Putin's unwillingness to counter the incursion more seriously with a mobilisation due to the risks of societal discontent or with large-scale redeployments due to possible disruptions to Russia's ongoing offensive operations in Ukraine’s east.
- Ukrainian forces recently marginally advanced north of Sudzha as Russian forces recaptured some areas of Kursk Oblast on 29 August.
- The Ukrainian General Staff reported on 29 August that a Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet recently crashed while defending against a large-scale Russian drone and missile strike.
- Russian authorities arrested and charged former Russian Deputy Defence Minister Army General Pavel Popov with large-scale fraud on 29 August.
- Russian leader Vladimir Putin will conduct an official visit to Mongolia despite Mongolia's status as a signatory to the Rome Statue and Mongolia’s legal obligation to enforce an arrest warrant for Putin from the International Criminal Court (ICC).
- The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed on 29 August that Ukrainian forces struck the Atlas Oil Refinery in Rostov Oblast and the Zenit Oil Depot in Kirov Oblast on the night of 27-28 August.
- Russian forces recently advanced near Kupiansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and the city of Donetsk.
- The Russian government continues to expand pathways for accused criminals to sign military service contracts.
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