ISW analyses Lukashenko regime's actions on border with Ukraine

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have pointed out that self-proclaimed Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, fearing for his regime, is unlikely to risk a war against Ukraine, but Belarus may aim to distract Ukrainian forces from the east and south and stretch them along a broader front. 

Source: ISW

Details: Ukraine has warned Belarus over the recent build-up of Belarusian forces on the Ukrainian border in Belarus’ Gomel Oblast.

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry called on Belarus to withdraw its troops from the border. It warned that any violation of the Ukrainian state border would prompt Ukraine to take the necessary measures under international law.

In addition, Andrii Demchenko, spokesman for the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, said on 26 August that Ukrainian troops were reinforcing the border with Belarus in response.

Quote: "The current Belarusian build-up along the Ukrainian border is likely intended to divert and stretch Ukrainian forces along a wider front line, as ISW continues to assess that Belarusian forces remain unlikely to invade Ukraine due to constraints facing [self-proclaimed] Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko."

"A Belarusian invasion of Ukraine, or even Belarus' military involvement in the war, would degrade Lukashenko‘s ability to defend his regime (and be very unpopular domestically), and ISW has previously assessed that Lukashenko is extremely unlikely to risk combat with Ukraine that could weaken his regime or drastically increase Belarusian domestic discontent."

More details: Analysts added that presidential elections are due in Belarus in February 2025, and Lukashenko is likely to maintain control over public sentiment, as well as the influence over his military to suppress any election-related protests, as he did in late 2020.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 26 August:

• Russia conducted one of the largest combined series of drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure to date on 26 August.
• Ukraine issued a warning to Belarus amid the recent buildup of Belarusian forces at the Ukrainian border in Belarus' Gomel Oblast.
• The current Belarusian build-up along the Ukrainian border is likely intended to divert and stretch Ukrainian forces along a wider frontline, as ISW continues to assess that Belarusian forces remain unlikely to invade Ukraine due to constraints facing self-proclaimed Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly attempted to strike Engels Air Base in Saratov Oblast and an oil refinery in Yaroslavl Oblast with drones on the morning of 26 August.
• Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations within their salient in Kursk Oblast on 26 August, but neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made any significant confirmed or claimed advances.
• Russian Presidential Administration Deputy Head Sergei Kiriyenko was reportedly in charge of a Kremlin think tank that tried and failed to establish rhetorical justifications for Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine after the fact, underscoring the Kremlin's rhetorical failures in the first months of the war and Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s continued prioritisation of loyalty over competency in officials.
• Russian forces recently advanced northeast of Kharkiv City, north of Chasiv Yar, southeast of Pokrovsk, and west of the city of Donetsk.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) continues to recruit foreigners to fight with the Russian military in Ukraine.

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