Threat of strikes on Moscow and St Petersburg may persuade Russia to negotiate

The Guardian, citing its sources, says Russia will only consider negotiations if it believes that Ukraine is able to "threaten Moscow and St Petersburg".

Source: The Guardian, citing sources

Details: The newspaper reports that Ukraine is seeking Western authorisation to use UK-French long-range Storm Shadow missiles to strike deep inside Russia, believing this could pressure Moscow into negotiating a cessation of hostilities.

Senior officials in Kyiv argue that a "demonstration strike" using Anglo-French weapons could show the Kremlin that military sites near Moscow are within striking distance.

Quote: "The thinking, according to a senior government official, is that Russia will consider negotiating only if it believes Ukraine had the ability ‘to threaten Moscow and St Petersburg’. This is a high-risk strategy, however, and does not so far have the support of the US."

Details: The newspaper notes that Ukraine has been lobbying for months to secure authorisation to use Storm Shadow missiles against targets in Russia but with little success. As Ukrainian forces face challenges on the Eastern front, there is a growing belief that their best chance lies in launching a counteroffensive.

In his speech on the occasion of Independence Day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Kyiv had no choice but to retaliate against Russia's full-scale invasion launched "913 days ago" in February 2022 – in particular, against Moscow's use of bombs and ballistic missiles against civilians.

Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities are frequently targeted by Russian missiles and drones. Earlier this week, Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, revealed that since the beginning of the year, Russia had launched 9,590 missiles and 13,997 drones on Ukraine, striking 6,203 civilian targets and 5,676 military targets.

Quote: "Storm Shadow missiles were developed primarily by an Anglo-French collaboration and are made by European joint venture MBDA, which also has an Italian partner. But because some of its components are supplied by the US, the White House also has to agree to its use inside Russia. It has so far refused to do so, fearing an escalation of the conflict [war – ed.]."

Details: The Guardian reports that Zelenskyy has indicated that the results of Ukraine's operation in Russia's Kursk Oblast reveal the Kremlin's red-line warnings to be overstated. Moscow has largely downplayed the Ukrainian offensive, with Russian officials rarely discussing it publicly and characterising their response as a "counter-terrorism operation."

US officials told Politico that they believe the Storm Shadow and other long-range missiles may not be accurate enough over long distances and that the Russian fighter jets that launched the glide bombs on Ukraine's frontline areas were mostly based out of the missiles' range.

Background:

• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged Ukraine's allies to put pressure on the allies to authorise Ukraine to use Western-supplied long-range weapons on Russian territory.
• Zelenskyy called on Ukrainian diplomats to work towards expanding the authorisation from Western powers so that long-range weapons sent to Ukraine can be used for strikes on Russian territory.
• Earlier, it was reported that Washington was effectively blocking the UK's authorisation for Kyiv to use Storm Shadow missiles in Russia due to the Biden administration’s concerns about escalating the war.

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