Russia advances towards Pokrovsk slowly but steadily – ISW

Russian troops continue to advance, slowly but steadily, towards the city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast (west of Avdiivka), aided by the terrain northwest of Avdiivka and the lack of Ukrainian manpower. 

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Military experts anticipate that the Russian offensive will decelerate further as their troops encounter larger, more urbanised settlements.

Ukrainian military analyst Kostiantyn Mashovets highlighted that defenders on the Pokrovsk front are disadvantaged by inferior equipment and defensive capabilities and are currently unable to significantly hinder the Russian advance.

Delays in Western, particularly American, military aid have hampered the equipping of newly formed Ukrainian units and the re-equipping of those already engaged in combat.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has assessed that Russian forces aim to achieve a limited tactical encirclement of Ukrainian forces east of the T0511 (O0544) Ocheretyne-Hrodivka-Myrnohrad motorway, with a particular focus on the left bank of the Vovcha River.

Geolocated footage from 1 August shows Russian troops advancing further within Vesele towards the T0511 road. The furthest confirmed advance was approximately 3.5 kilometres from Hrodivka's outskirts.

Mashovets described the recent Russian progress southeast of the O0544 road as a tactical breach of Ukrainian lines, noting an advance of 6.5 kilometres in depth and 7.5 kilometres in width from Sokil to Serhiivka, crossing the Vovcha and Kazennyi Torets rivers (which run through Prohres-Vovche and Lozuvatske, respectively) in recent weeks.

He warned that Russian forces are nearing an operationally significant breakthrough on the Pokrovsk front by the end of August.

Current Russian efforts on the Pokrovsk front are concentrated on achieving a tactical breakthrough near Zhelanne and Novohrodivka.

Furthermore, the Central Grouping of Russian Forces appears to be redeploying and manoeuvring forces more swiftly across its expanded area of responsibility in Donetsk Oblast than it had in most other parts of the battlefield. This group may have developed a more agile command and control structure, allowing for a quicker response to tactical vulnerabilities in Ukraine compared to other Russian military formations in the area.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 1 August: 

• Russian forces continue to make slow, steady advances on the Pokrovsk front (west of Avdiivka), largely enabled by Ukrainian manpower shortages and the terrain in the area immediately northwest of Avdiivka. Russian advances will likely slow further as Russian forces advance into a line of larger and more urban settlements.
• Russia's current rate of tactical advance towards Pokrovsk will likely not continue indefinitely, however, as Russian forces are approaching a line of larger and more urban settlements.
• Russia's Central Grouping of Forces appears to be more rapidly redeploying and committing forces between different sectors of its recently expanded area of responsibility (AOR) in Donetsk Oblast than has been the norm in most of the theater recently.
• The Central Grouping of Forces may have established a more flexible command and control (C2) structure and may be responding more quickly to potential Ukrainian tactical vulnerabilities than other Russian groupings of forces in Ukraine.
• A limited number of F-16 fighter jets have reportedly arrived in Ukraine, but it will likely be several months before Ukraine will be able to field the jets at scale.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated that Ukraine will not compromise its sovereignty and territorial integrity in exchange for a diplomatic resolution to Russia's invasion.
• Russia, Belarus, the US, Germany, Poland, Slovenia, Türkiye, and Norway conducted a high-profile prisoner exchange involving 26 prisoners from multiple countries on 1 August.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Svatove, Chasiv Yar and Donetsk City.
• Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii reported on 1 August that the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) may have significantly overstated the number of contract soldiers it claims to have recruited between the autumn of 2022 and April 2024.

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