Ukraine's invasion of Kursk Oblast disrupts secret talks with Russia on stopping attacks on power facilities – WP

The Washington Post journalists have reported that Ukraine and Russia were to send delegations to Doha, Qatar, this month to negotiate a historic agreement that would end the attacks on power infrastructure on both sides.

Source: The Washington Post with reference to diplomats familiar with the talks

Details: It is noted in the article that the indirect talks, in which Qatar acted as a mediator and met separately with Ukrainian and Russian delegations, were disrupted by Ukraine's surprise invasion of Russia's western Kursk Oblast last week.

This possible agreement and the planned summit were not previously reported.

Journalists reiterated that Russia has been targeting Ukraine's power grid for more than a year with plenty of cruise missiles and drones, causing significant damage to power plants and making the entire country introduce rolling power outages.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has targeted Russian oil facilities with long-range drone strikes that have set fire to refineries, oil depots and tanks, cutting Moscow's oil refining by about 15% and raising gas prices globally.

Quote: "The willingness to engage in the talks signaled something of a shift for both countries, at least for a limited cease-fire. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Kyiv would consider a full cease-fire only if Russia first withdrew all of its troops from Ukrainian land, including the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia invaded and annexed in 2014.

Russia’s Vladimir Putin has demanded that Ukraine first cede four Ukrainian regions — including some territory that Russian forces aren’t occupying — that the Kremlin has declared as part of Russia."

More details: A diplomat involved in the talks said that Russian officials had postponed a meeting with Qatari officials after Ukraine's invasion of western Russia.

He added that Moscow's delegation called this "an escalation" and noted that Ukraine did not warn Qatar "about its cross-border offensive".

The diplomat also stressed that Russia had not called off the talks completely; they simply said to give them some time. 

The source noted that although Ukraine had wanted to send its delegation to Qatar anyway, Qatar refused because it saw no benefit in a unilateral meeting.

The diplomat, familiar with the negotiations, said that Qatar had been discussing an agreement with Kyiv and Moscow on a moratorium on energy strikes for the past two months. He added that the parties had agreed to hold a summit in Doha, and only minor details remained to be agreed upon.

"After Kursk, the Russians balked," another person familiar with the talks said.

A Russian source with close ties to the diplomatic community made it clear that "Putin would not be in the mood to make a deal after the Kursk offensive".

"You know our Russian leadership usually does not make any compromises under pressure," the person said.

In response to a request from The Washington Post, the Office of the President of Ukraine said that the Doha summit had been postponed "due to the situation in the Middle East" but would take place via video conference on 22 August. After that, Kyiv would consult with its partners on implementing the agreement.

The Kremlin did not respond to inquiries from The Washington Post.

The White House declined to comment on this topic. The Biden administration has long said that Ukraine should determine the timing and terms of a potential ceasefire with Russia alone.

A diplomat said at a briefing about the talks that both Kyiv and Moscow had demonstrated their willingness to accept an agreement ahead of the summit. However, two people familiar with the talks noted that senior officials in Kyiv had mixed expectations about whether the talks could succeed, with some estimating a 20% chance of success and others predicting even worse prospects, even if the Kursk assault had not occurred.

"We have one chance to get through this winter, and that’s if the Russians won’t launch any new attacks on the grid," a Ukrainian official said.

Ukrainian and Western officials stressed that Kyiv's step forward to meet with Russia, which occupies about 20% of Ukraine's territory, was partly intended to give Ukraine more leverage in future negotiations.

Quote: "Military analysts have expressed skepticism that Ukrainian forces can maintain control of the Russian territory. 

Moscow has also continued to make gains in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast and has not diverted troops from there to defend the new Ukrainian assault.

But while Kyiv might have improved its future negotiating position with the land grab, the likelihood of imminent peace talks appears diminished. 

Putin publicly vowed this week not to soften his position on negotiations because of the assault on Russian territory."

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