Kremlin creates so far ineffective agency to respond to events in Kursk Oblast – ISW

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War have stressed that Russian authorities and military command are establishing a complicated and so far inefficient agency to respond to the Ukrainian defence forces’ operation in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.

Source: ISW

Quote: "The Kremlin and the Russian military command are creating a complicated, overlapping, and so far, ineffective command and control structure for the Russian response to the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast."

Details: On 15 August, Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov announced the creation of a so-called coordination council for military and security issues in Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk oblasts. 

Belousov stated that the coordination council aimed to improve support for Russian forces covering the state border and would oversee the effective logistics, coordination between forces responding to threats along the state border, engineering arrangements and military medical support.

It was pointed out that Russian leader Vladimir Putin had set tasks for the Ministry of Defence, the Federal Security Service (FSB) and the Russian Guard (Rosgvardia), which overlap in Kursk Oblast, and these bodies had not yet taken any significant steps to establish a clearer division of responsibilities.

Quote: "The delayed establishment of a complicated Russian command and control structure in Kursk Oblast continues to highlight the fact that the Kremlin failed to plan for the possibility of a significant Ukrainian incursion into Russia."

More details: The experts suggested that the Kremlin had a more coordinated approach to ensuring its control over the Russian information space than to solving its military problems and other issues in Kursk Oblast.

It was noted that Russian officials and propagandists appeared to have launched a coordinated campaign to discredit so-called military bloggers and social media channels not affiliated with the Kremlin that have been disseminating information about Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast since the start of the operation.

Quote: "The Kremlin is likely trying to hastily create a new information space that predominantly features co-opted Russian milbloggers and established Russian state propagandists."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 15 August: 

• Ukrainian officials are taking steps to consolidate and coordinate the management of ongoing Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast while continuing to highlight Ukrainian advances.
• Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continued advancing in some areas in Kursk Oblast amid a generally slower tempo of Ukrainian operations in the area.
• Russian forces are maintaining their relatively high offensive tempo in Donetsk Oblast, demonstrating that the Russian military command continues to prioritise advances in eastern Ukraine even as Ukraine is pressuring Russian forces within Kursk Oblast.
• The Kremlin and the Russian military command are creating a complicated, overlapping, and so far, ineffective command and control (C2) structure for the Russian response to the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast.
• The delayed establishment of a complicated Russian C2 structure in Kursk Oblast continues to highlight the fact that the Kremlin failed to plan for the possibility of a significant Ukrainian incursion into Russia.
• The Kremlin appears to have a more coordinated approach to securing its control over the Russian information space than to addressing its military and C2 problems in Kursk Oblast.
• The Kremlin is likely trying to hastily create a new information space that predominantly features coopted Russian milbloggers and established Russian state propagandists.
• Ukrainian forces are reportedly using Western-provided equipment in Kursk Oblast but remain limited in their ability to strike Russian military targets within Russia with Western-provided weapons.
• Ukraine is organising the creation of a humanitarian corridor through which to evacuate Russian civilians who are impacted by the ongoing Kursk operation, filling an apparent vacuum left by the Kursk Oblast administration and fulfilling international legal requirements for the evacuation of civilian populations.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces successfully conducted drone strikes against Russian air bases in Russia on the night of 13-14 August.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk fronts.
• The Russian government submitted a bill on 15 August to lower the admission age for the Russian Volunteer Society for Assistance to the Army, Aviation, and Navy of Russia from 18 years of age to 14.

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