Russia concerned, digging trenches amid fears of rapid Ukrainian advance in Kursk Oblast – ISW

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast are having a significant impact on defence, logistics and security in Russia.

Source: ISW

Details: Russian military bloggers have reported that Ukrainian forces made small gains in Kursk Oblast, although overall, Ukrainian operations in the area have slowed. Russian forces are trying to stabilise the front line.

Satellite images from the Maxar company, taken on 12 August, reveal newly constructed defence positions, including trenches and anti-vehicle ditches, located southwest of Lgov along the E38 Lgov-Rylsk-Hlukhiv road (northwest of the Russian city of Sudzha). 

Additional images published on 13 August and collected between 6 and 11 August show new fortifications near the 38K-024 road just south of Lgov.

These new defences are positioned about 17 kilometres north of the furthest reported Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast, indicating that Russian forces are worried about the possibility of Ukrainian forces rapidly advancing further north. 

The focus on major roads suggests that Russian forces are trying to protect key ground lines of communication (GLOCs), particularly along the E38 and 38K routes, to prevent Ukrainian movements.

Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast are also reportedly affecting Russian railway logistics. The Belarusian Railway Workers Community reported on 13 August that internal sources claim Russian Railways had informed Belarusian Railways to stop sending trains from Belarusian stations to the Oryol-Kursk branch of the Moscow Railway starting on 12  August, due to a "large-scale operational transfer of troops in the direction of Kursk Oblast" and the movement of freight trains for military purposes.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 14 August:

• Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces marginally advanced in Kursk Oblast amid a generally slower tempo of Ukrainian operations as Russian forces continue attempts to stabilise the frontline in the area.
• Ukrainian officials continue to discuss ongoing Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast and offer their interpretations of the political impact that Ukraine may aim to generate.
• Ongoing Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast are generating tangible defensive, logistical and security impacts within Russia.
• The Russian government continues recruitment efforts to support operations in Kursk Oblast.
• Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz Commander Apty Alaudinov seems to be posturing himself as the spokesperson for the Russian defence in Kursk Oblast, but his claims have consistently been false and largely contradict claims made by relatively reliable Russian milbloggers.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a large series of drone strikes against Russian air bases in Russia on the night of 13 to 14 August, damaging several airfields.
• Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party furthered a narrative echoing a Kremlin information operation meant to justify Russia’s violence against the territorial integrity and sovereignty of states formerly colonised by the Soviet Union and Russian Empire.
• Russian forces advanced north of the city of Kharkiv and southeast of Pokrovsk.

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