ISW: Ukrainian forces are operating in roughly 41 settlements in Kursk Oblast

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has assessed that Ukrainian forces do not control all of the territory in Kursk Oblast they claim to, according to the definition of "control" used by military analysts.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on 3 August that Ukrainian forces had established "control" over 74 settlements in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.

ISW has observed statements and geo-location video footage indicating that as of 13 August, Ukrainian forces were operating in or near approximately 41 settlements in Kursk Oblast, although there are many extremely small settlements and areas in the region that ISW has not included in this count.

Military analysts have stressed that the discrepancies between Ukrainian official reports and ISW's observed claims and geolocated records do not constitute a refutation of Ukrainian declarations, but rather result from the inherent limitations of ISW's counting methodology and its reliance on publicly available information.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 13 August:

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other senior Ukrainian officials provided updates about the ongoing Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and outlined several Ukrainian objectives of the operations in the area.
• Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continue to advance in Kursk Oblast amid Russian attempts to stabilise the front line in the area.
• The Russian military command may be pulling select elements of Russian irregular units from Donetsk Oblast to address the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast.
• Russian authorities appear to be largely relying on Russian conscripts, and elements of some regular and irregular military units pulled from less critical sectors of the frontline to address the ongoing Ukrainian incursion, however.
• Russian leader Vladimir Putin reportedly appointed Russian Presidential Aide Alexei Dyumin to supervise Russia’s "counterterrorism operation" in Kursk Oblast on 12 August.
• Russian officials continue to undermine a long-standing Kremlin information operation that falsely portrays Ukraine as unwilling to engage in legitimate, good-faith negotiations and places the onus for peace negotiations on Ukraine.
• Russian authorities fined Telegram and WhatsApp four million roubles (US$44,000) each for failing to remove "prohibited" content on 13 August.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar and southwest of the city of Donetsk, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced on the Siversk front and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) continues to use the Army-2024 International Military-Technical Forum in Moscow to expand its international defence ties.

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