Russia might announce new mobilisation wave following large losses on the front – Bloomberg

Bloomberg has reported that the Russian army is seeing a deficit of manpower to continue fighting its war against Ukraine, which might prompt a new mobilisation wave in the Russian Federation.

Source: Bloomberg, citing sources in Russia

Details: Three sources close to the Kremlin and the Russian Defence Ministry told Bloomberg that the Russian military is not getting enough new soldiers to keep pace with frontline losses that are at their highest since the February 2022 invasion began. "Regional officials are leaving more than a third of their recruitment quotas unfilled on average," Bloomberg reported.

This situation might force Russia to consider a new mobilisation. According to one source, officials might disguise this as "rotation" designed to allow the soldiers currently fighting on the front to take a break, while another source said that the new mobilisation might be called for as early as this year.

Bloomberg also reported that Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast incursion, which was not met with great resistance, underscores the challenges the Kremlin faces in this war.

"Russia’s failure to defeat the Ukrainian attack so far and restore control of its border has exposed a lack of defensive reserves. Moscow has hundreds of thousands of troops on the frontline in eastern and southern Ukraine where it faces mounting casualties with fighting largely at a stalemate," Bloomberg wrote.

A source told Bloomberg that the scale of Russian losses and inadequate replacement levels make it increasingly difficult for Russia to sustain its current strategy in Ukraine.

There is no longer talk of seizing Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities because Russia does not have the manpower, the source said.

Background:

• On 12 August, Alexei Smirnov, acting Governor of Kursk Oblast in Russia, informed Russian leader Vladimir Putin that 28 towns and villages in Kursk Oblast were "under enemy control".
• As of 12 August, the Ukrainian army might be controlling up to 44 towns and villages in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, according to DeepState military analysts.
• During the meeting of the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief on 12 August, Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said that Ukrainian forces were conducting an offensive operation in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. "As of now about 1,000 sq km of Russian territory is under our control… The situation is under our control," he said.

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