Russia does not want to redeploy forces to Kursk to avoid disrupting their offensive – ISW

The Russian military command may currently be resisting the redeployment of forces from other operational fronts to prevent events in Russia’s Kursk Oblast from disrupting Russian offensive operations in Ukraine’s east. 

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Quote: "The Russian military command appears to be relying on existing units deployed to the international border area and readily available forces in the rear, most of which are units staffed with conscripts and irregular forces, to address the ongoing Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast. 

These units would likely be the first to respond even if the Russian military command has decided to transfer additional, more experienced units from elsewhere in the theatre." 

Details: The Russian military command has reportedly redeployed forces from unspecified operational reserves, including additional units composed of conscripts, special forces (the Main Directorate of the General Staff of Russia, GRU), special operations forces (SOF), additional Chechen special forces unit Akhmat operating under the aegis of the Russian Ministry of Defence, as well as the 1st Army Corps of the "Donetsk People's Republic" [self-proclaimed and non-recognised quasi-state formation in Donetsk Oblast – ed.] and former servicemen of the Wagner Group to areas in Kursk Oblast.

Quote: "The Russian military command may currently be transferring more experienced and better-provisioned frontline units from eastern or southern Ukraine to Kursk Oblast, but it would likely take additional time for such units to arrive in Kursk Oblast." 

More details: A Russian military blogger reported that units from the 44th Army Corps (Leningrad Military District) of Russia's Northern Group of Forces are currently operating near Rylsk, Kursk Oblast. He speculated, however, that the Russian military command might be redeploying forces initially gathered for an offensive in Ukraine’s northern Kharkiv Oblast.  

If accurate, this suggests that the Russian military leadership may have determined that abandoning the northern Kharkiv offensive is a necessary compromise to avoid drawing forces away from higher-priority sections of the front.  

A broader redeployment of Russian forces from the front lines is expected to be more gradual, with more capable frontline units likely to arrive in Kursk Oblast over the next few days.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 9 August:

• Russian sources claimed on 9 August that Ukrainian forces advanced further east in Kursk Oblast but are likely no longer operating as far north or as far west as Russian sources previously claimed on 8 August.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian military convoy east of Rylsk near Oktyabrskoye, Kursk Oblast.
• The Russian military command appears to be relying on existing units deployed to the international border area and readily available forces in the rear, most of which are units staffed with conscripts and irregular forces, to address the ongoing Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast.
• These units would likely be the first to respond even if the Russian military command has decided to transfer additional, more experienced units from elsewhere in the theatre.
• The Russian military command may currently be resisting operational pressures to redeploy forces from other operational directions to prevent the Ukrainian incursion from disrupting Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine.
• The Russian military command may currently be transferring more experienced and better-provisioned frontline units from eastern or southern Ukraine to Kursk Oblast, but it would likely take additional time for such units to arrive in Kursk Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces conducted strikes against a Russian military airfield in Lipetsk Oblast and other Russian military targets in occupied Crimea and Donetsk Oblast on 9 August.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) continues to posture itself as providing sufficient medical care to Russian servicemembers.

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