Putin strengthens justification for Iranian aggression against Israel – ISW

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), after analysing statements by Russian authorities regarding the killing of Hamas Political Bureau Chairperson Ismail Haniyeh, have indicated that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is increasingly expressing an anti-Israeli position and intensifying the justification of Iranian aggression.

Source: ISW

Details: Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov accused Israel of carrying out an airstrike in Tehran, Iran, which resulted in the death of Hamas Political Bureau Chairperson Ismail Haniyeh. According to Peskov, this action was aimed at undermining peace efforts in the Middle East.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) issued a statement condemning Haniyeh's assassination, which, it is noted, took place during his visit to Tehran for Masoud Pezeshkian's presidential inauguration.

Although the MFA did not explicitly blame Israel, it suggested that "organisers of this political assassination" were aware of the "dangerous consequences" it would have on the region.

Quote: "Russia's decision to publicly blame Israel for destabilising peace prospects in the Middle East and indirectly threaten Israel with 'dangerous consequences' demonstrates Russia's increasing willingness to publicly align with Iran amid deepening Russian-Iranian military cooperation."

Since the onset of the Israel-Hamas conflict in October 2023, Russian leader Vladimir Putin has adopted more anti-Israel rhetoric and has supported information campaigns that justify Iranian attacks on Israel, including the significant missile and drone strikes on 13 April.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 31 July:

• Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that Israel conducted an airstrike killing Hamas Political Bureau Chairperson Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran to derail attempts to establish peace in the Middle East.
• The Russian State Duma revised some aspects of a recent bill criminalising Russian soldiers' use of personal devices on the battlefield following outcry in the Russian ultranationalist community.
• Russian officials may be taking steps to address domestic security issues following the March 2024 Crocus City Hall terrorist attack and June 2024 shootings in the Republic of Dagestan.
• Ukrainian forces struck a weapons and equipment warehouse in Kursk City on the night of 30 to 31 July.
• Russian border guards withdrew from Armenia’s main international airport.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupiansk, Svatove, Chasiv Yar, Torestsk and Donetsk City and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• Russian leader Vladimir Putin signed a decree on 31 July increasing financial incentives for signing a Russian military service contract, likely to support ongoing crypto-mobilisation efforts.

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