Putin sees "final" end of war in destroying Ukrainian statehood – ISW

Olha Hlushchenko — Saturday, 6 July 2024, 06:04

Putin. Stock photo: Getty Images

Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s statements have indicated that he does not want to agree on anything else other than destroying Ukrainian statehood and identity.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: On 5 July, during a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Russian leader Vladimir Putin firmly rejected the notion of a negotiated ceasefire, instead advocating for a definitive conclusion to the war that would obliterate Ukrainian sovereignty. Putin emphasised that a temporary truce would only allow Ukraine to regroup and rearm, insisting on a comprehensive and irreversible end to the conflict.

Putin’s rhetoric and demands highlight his refusal to settle for anything less than the total dismantling of Ukrainian statehood and national identity. His conditions include the cession of substantial Ukrainian territories and the complete surrender of the Ukrainian military as prerequisites for any peace talks.

Furthermore, Putin likely envisions Ukraine's capitulation as a means to overthrow its democratically elected government, replacing it with a pro-Russian administration that aligns with his strategic interests.

To thwart Putin's objectives, Ukraine must continue its counteroffensive operations aimed at reclaiming key territories. The international community, particularly Western allies, must accelerate their support to empower Ukraine's military efforts. This robust assistance is vital to disrupt Putin’s plans, shorten the conflict, and achieve a peace settlement that respects Ukraine’s sovereignty and meets the expectations of its global partners.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 5 July:

Russian leader Vladimir Putin used a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on 5 July to oppose a negotiated ceasefire altogether and expressed his commitment to pursuing a "final" end to the war that would achieve his goal of destroying Ukrainian statehood.
Putin is demanding both the surrender of a significant portion of Ukraine's territory and people to Russian occupation and Ukrainian military capitulation in advance of any negotiations on an end-state to the war.
Ukrainian counteroffensive operations that liberate operationally significant territory remain the soundest course of action for degrading Putin's confidence in and commitment to his desired end state for his war of aggression against Ukraine.
Putin's rejection of any ceasefire agreement contradicts the Kremlin's previous effort to place the onus for negotiations on the West and Ukraine.
Putin attempted to portray Orbán as an EU representative who can speak on the EU's behalf – a claim that EU officials explicitly denied.
Recent Russian domestic polls suggest that Kremlin information operations are influencing domestic Russian support of the war in Ukraine.
These Russian polls indicate that Russians who criticise the conduct of the war in Ukraine still support the war due to patriotism and disenfranchisement.
Many of Russia's "non-opponents" to the war have criticisms that parallel those of Russian ultranationalist milbloggers, yet they lack the ultranationalists' close attention to the war and desire for political change in support of Russian war aims.
Ukrainian forces conducted successful drone and missile strikes against targets in Tambov and Rostov oblasts and Krasnodar Krai on 4-5 July.
Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Toretsk, and Donetsk City.
Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) officials continue to portray themselves as providing adequate medical care and other support for Russian soldiers who fought in Ukraine amid ongoing criticisms that the Russian military command sends injured soldiers to fight on the frontline.