Putin overtly demands Ukraine's surrender for ceasefire – ISW

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have pointed out that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is rejecting any negotiation possibilities for a ceasefire and is now openly demanding Ukraine's actual surrender.

Source: ISW

Details: Russian leader Vladimir Putin has rejected any substantial negotiations for a ceasefire, demanding Ukraine's "irreversible" demilitarisation as a precondition, effectively requiring Ukraine to surrender first.

During the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on 4 July, Putin dismissed any prospects of ceasefire negotiations. 

The Russian ruler often portrays the West as his main negotiating partner to secure concessions on Ukrainian sovereignty but dismissed all intermediary parties and Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) as illegitimate or unsuitable for talks.

Putin's demand for Ukraine's demilitarisation as a precondition for a ceasefire highlights his strategy. 

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes Russia would use a ceasefire to rebuild and expand its military for future aggression against Ukraine. 

Putin's stance shows his confidence in achieving victory through continued advances in Ukraine, outlasting Western support and winning a war of attrition.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 4 July: 

• Russian leader Vladimir Putin explicitly rejected Russian participation in any meaningful negotiations on a ceasefire agreement, instead demanding Ukraine's "irreversible" "demilitarisation" as a precondition for any ceasefire agreement. Putin is thus demanding that Ukraine effectively surrender in advance of any ceasefire.
• Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) officers reportedly detained the commander of the Russian 83rd Guards Airborne Assault (VDV) Brigade, Colonel Artyom Gorodilov, on fraud charges on 3 July following reports of the brigade suffering heavy losses in the Kharkiv direction in June 2024.
• Russian leader Vladimir Putin supported the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation's (SCO) efforts to expand its presence in Central Asia and will likely use an increased SCO presence as one of its levers to expand Russian influence in the region.
• The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced the purchase of $2.2 billion worth of US-produced air defence interceptors and an aid package worth $150 million for Ukraine on 3 July.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
• Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on 4 July that around 190,000 Russians signed military service contracts during the first six months of 2024 during a Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) meeting about staffing the Russian military with contract soldiers.

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