Ukraine forms several new brigades but unable to arm them – ISW

Ukraine has been addressing its manpower issues and forming several new brigades, but delays and insufficient deliveries of Western weapons are likely to prevent Ukraine from equipping these new brigades.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Quote: "Timely and appropriate Western security assistance continues to be a crucial determinant of when and at what scale Ukrainian forces can contest the battlefield initiative and conduct operationally significant counteroffensive operations in the future." 

Details: In an interview with Bloomberg on 3 July, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that Ukrainian forces now have better manpower compared to a few months ago. However, he emphasised that future counteroffensive operations hinge on obtaining heavy equipment like mechanised fighting vehicles, armoured personnel carriers, tanks and heavy artillery (likely referencing at least 10 planned new Ukrainian brigades).

A Ukrainian brigade commander near Chasiv Yar in Dinetsk Oblast shared a similar view, highlighting a greater need for ammunition over manpower in their operations.

Zelenskyy pointed out the slow arrival of military equipment to the front, mirroring his earlier June 2024 remarks about delayed US security assistance complicating efforts to equip reserve brigades for defensive operations. 

Ukrainian media has frequently reported on the insufficient materiel for new brigades being formed.

Without additional Western security assistance, Ukraine struggles to fully equip its new brigades, which is crucial for conducting significant counteroffensive operations. 

This urgency is heightened by Russian forces' attempts to force Ukraine into immediate defensive commitments, hindering their ability to gather the necessary resources and personnel to seize the initiative.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 3 July: 

• Ukraine is addressing its manpower challenges and is forming several new brigades, but delayed and insufficient Western weapons deliveries will likely prevent Ukraine from equipping all these new brigades. Timely and appropriate Western security assistance continues to be crucial determinant of when and at what scale Ukrainian forces can contest the battlefield initiative and conduct operationally significant counteroffensive operations in the future.
• Ukraine conducted a naval drone strike against Russian naval infrastructure in Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai on the night of 3 July and reportedly damaged energy infrastructure during an aerial drone strike on Belgorod Oblast on the night of 1 July.
• Unspecified People's Republic of China (PRC) and Russian companies are reportedly working together to develop a drone similar to the Iranian-designed Shahed loitering munition for Russia to use in Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently advanced within easternmost Chasiv Yar, in the Toretsk direction, and near Avdiivka, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced within Vovchansk, near Kreminna, and southeast of Chasiv Yar.
• The Kremlin continues efforts to position Russian veterans who have fought in Ukraine in official roles in Russian domestic politics.

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