F-16 fighter jets unlikely to have major effect on course of war in Ukraine – the WP

The first F-16 fighter jets are set to arrive in Ukraine in the coming weeks, but Ukrainian and Western officials warn that they might not have an immediate effect on the course of the war as Russia continues to slowly make gains on the battlefield.

Source: The Washington Post

Details: The Washington Post reported that Ukraine will only receive a small number of F-16 fighters while Russia has a lot of air defence systems capable of taking them down.

This means that the first F-16s arriving in Ukraine will likely be deployed to strengthen its air defence, shooting down Russian aerial targets rather than striking Russian ground forces.

According to The Post, it is unlikely that the fighters will be deployed close to the frontline, at least in the beginning, and therefore will not be able to intercept Russian military aircraft.

Officials refused to disclose how many F-16 jets will be given to Ukraine this year, but the number will not exceed around 20, which is one squadron. Moreover, only six pilots will have completed their training this summer because the training program had a limited number of spaces and was significantly delayed.

According to a Center for a New American Security (an American think tank) assessment, the situation on the battlefield has changed since last year, when the decision to give F-16s to Ukraine was first announced. Armies might have an urgent need for aircraft, as they might for weapons, but this operational need might be reduced to nothing by the time the aircraft or weapons are supplied.

The F-16s can still meet Ukraine’s immediate needs, however, thanks to their ability to both shoot down enemy aircraft and hit ground targets.

A Ukrainian defence official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Washington Post that "dozens" of pilots have been trained to fly the F-16a. However, the limited number of instructors and training centres forces Ukraine to send one group of pilots and engineering staff at a time.

The official said that training to operate the aircraft for Ukrainian pilots is preceded by four months of English lessons in the UK where they learn key terminology, which stretches the training process to up to a year even for experienced pilots.

Ukraine cannot afford to send a large number of experienced pilots away for this amount of time because they are needed to carry out combat missions, according to the Ukrainian defence official.

The Washington Post reported that ensuring the F-16s’ security on the ground will also be a challenge for Ukraine, given that Russian missiles can reach all Ukrainian airfields and in light of Russia’s recent attacks on Ukrainian aircraft left on runways.

A Ukrainian defence official said that it is "impossible" for Ukraine to build covered concrete hangars to completely protect military aircraft in wartime.

Instead, Ukraine is deploying masking techniques, for example parking dummy aircraft on airfields as false targets for Russia.

Another high-ranking Ukrainian military official told The Washington Post that Russia is preparing for the arrival of the F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. At the end of last year, the official said, Russia launched several missiles with dummy warheads from an S-400 air defence system located in Dzhankoi, a city in occupied Crimea.

According to the official, the Russian missiles reached the city of Kremenchuk in Ukraine, some 320 kilometres away from Dzhankoi, with Moscow likely trialling the range of its S-400 air defence systems to bring down Ukrainian aircraft.

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