ISW analyses one Russia assault, saying their command has not learned its lessons

Russian forces are attempting to regain the initiative on the battlefield and achieve quick victories through mechanised manoeuvres. The large-scale frontal assaults indicate that the Russian military command has not fully learned its lessons about the difficulties of mechanised manoeuvres on the almost transparent battlefield in Ukraine.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: The current strategy of the Russian military, which involves deploying numerous armoured vehicles for limited tactical gains, highlights a lack of strategic foresight. As time goes on, the increasing scarcity of equipment is likely to make such mechanised offensives increasingly unsustainable and costly. To maintain its aggressive operations in Ukraine, Russia has been heavily reliant on refurbishing old stocks of Soviet-era weaponry, particularly armoured vehicles.

According to a report by the Ukraine-based open-source organisation Frontelligence Insight on 25 July, Russian forces have been observed transporting hundreds of pieces of military equipment, mainly older refurbished armoured vehicles such as T-62 and T-55 tanks, to the front lines during June and early July 2024. These vehicles have not yet seen combat, suggesting that Russia may be planning to deploy them later this year. Frontelligence Insight also noted that internal Russian documents reveal a backlog of tanks, damaged in the past six months, awaiting replacement parts, with engine shortages leading to the cannibalisation of newer T-80 tanks for repairs.

Despite these logistical challenges, Russia still has enough armoured vehicles to conduct periodic company-sized and larger mechanised assaults along the front lines in the foreseeable future.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 25 July:

• Ukrainian forces blunted one of the largest Russian mechanised assaults in Ukraine since October 2023 in western Donetsk Oblast on 24 July.
• The Russian military command's willingness to expend a large number of armoured vehicles on limited tactical objectives reflects poor longer-term operational foresight, and constraints on Russian equipment in the medium- to long-term will make such failed mechanised assaults costlier with time.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) indicated that Lieutenant General Sergei Kobylash has become Deputy Commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS).
• Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov attempted to frame Ukraine as unwilling to negotiate, while demonstrating the Kremlin's own unwillingness to engage in good faith negotiations by reinvigorating Russian information operations falsely portraying Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as an "illegitimate" leader of Ukraine.
• The Kremlin continues to strengthen its ties with the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states.
• The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) and National Police announced that they neutralised a group connected to the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) that had been preparing to commit arson against civilian facilities in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe.
• Select Russian officials continue to call for measures targeting diaspora groups while the Russian government continues efforts to extend its control over migrants in Russia.
• Syrian President Bashar al Assad met with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Moscow on 24 July.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Robotyne, and Russian forces recently marginally advanced north of Kharkiv City and near Toretsk, Donetsk City, and Robotyne.
• Russian leader Vladimir Putin signed a law on 24 July granting deferments from military conscription to employees of the Russian Prosecutor General's Office and Investigative Committee who have higher education and special ranks starting in September 2024.

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