Russian media prepare public for prolonged war – ISW

Russian state media have put their own spin on comments by Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, claiming that he said the Ukrainian state would not exist by 2034.  By doing so, they are preparing the Russian public for a prolonged war in Ukraine, promising that Russia will achieve its goal of destroying Ukrainian statehood within ten years.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: In an interview with the Russian outlet Argumenty i Fakty on 17 July, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairperson of the Russian Security Council, suggested that NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg’s statement about Ukraine potentially joining NATO within the next decade was noteworthy. Medvedev concluded that Ukraine would "never" join NATO, speculating that by 2034 NATO leadership would have changed and implying that Ukraine might not exist by then, referring to Ukraine derogatively as "country 404"  [a derogative use of the 404 computer 'error' code meant to suggest that Ukraine is not a real state].

Although Medvedev did not explicitly state that Ukraine would cease to exist by 2034, his comments implied it. This led Russian media outlets, including Kremlin-affiliated TASS, to publish sensational headlines such as "Medvedev admitted that Ukraine will no longer exist in 2034" and "Medvedev predicted the disappearance of Ukraine by 2034".

The Russian media's portrayal of Medvedev's statements carries significant implications. Primarily, the narrative that Russia could "destroy Ukraine" by 2034 serves as a promise to the Russian public that Russia will win the war and achieve its goal of dismantling Ukrainian statehood within a decade. This sets the stage for long-term societal expectations of a war that ends with Russia's "victory".

In addition, this narrative undermines attempts by some Kremlin officials to suggest that Russia is open to "peace" negotiations with Ukraine. It emphasises that the Kremlin's sole objective is the complete destruction of the Ukrainian state and its people. 

Therefore, neither Ukraine nor the West can realistically negotiate with Russia if its terms are based on the eradication of Ukraine within the next ten years.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 17 July:

• Russian state news outlets editorialised comments by Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev and claimed that he said that the Ukrainian state will no longer exist by 2034, likely to support the Kremlin's efforts to prepare the Russian public for a long war in Ukraine while promising that Russia will complete its objective to destroy Ukrainian statehood within a decade.
• Russian officials continue to seize on diplomatic meetings with European states to create the impression that Russia is normalising its relations with the West and claim that there is limited Western support for Russia.
• Russia and India continue to strengthen their bilateral relationship amid reports of ongoing Russian weapons exports to India.
• Russia and Ukraine exchanged 95 prisoners of war (POWs) each in a one-to-one POW exchange on 17 July.
• Kremlin officials continue attempts to curry favour with Russian ultranationalists by appealing to anti-migrant animus despite such appeals generating tensions with the Russian government’s efforts to execute the Kremlin's wider migration policy.
• Ukrainian forces regained positions south of Toretsk and Russian forces recently advanced north of Kharkiv City and near Kupiansk, Svatove, Avdiivka and Vuhledar.
• Russia's crypto-mobilisation campaign continues to generate increasing financial costs for the Russian government.

Support UP or become our patron!