Ukrainian UAVs put pressure on Russian air defence – ISW
Russian regional authorities have explicitly stated that they cannot rely on Russian air defence at the federal level and that the regions must counter the drones themselves.
Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
Details: Ukrainian drone incursions deep into Russian territory are significantly challenging Russia's air defence network. On 6 May, satellite images revealed that Russian forces have stationed at least seven Pantsir-1 medium-range air defence systems around Russian leader Vladimir Putin's residence in Valdai, Leningrad Oblast.
This deployment underscores the Russian military's inability to relevantly protect all critical sites in western Russia, as they struggle to defend even crucial targets in supposedly secure areas. To counteract these deficiencies, the Russian military initiated the formation of mobile fire groups in March 2024, adopting a strategy that Ukraine successfully used to fend off Russian Shahed-136/131 drone strikes.
The ongoing strain on Russia's air defence infrastructure has prompted certain regional authorities to declare that Russian businesses and local governments must no longer depend on federal air defences and instead should establish their own anti-drone defences.
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 16 July:
- Ukrainian drone strikes deep within Russia continue to pressure Russia's air defence umbrella and force the Russian military command to prioritise allocating limited air defence assets to cover what it deems to be high-value targets.
- Ukrainian forces continue targeting Russian air defence systems in occupied Ukraine and in Russia’s border areas to set conditions to field F-16 fighter jets following their anticipated Summer-Fall 2024 arrival to Ukraine.
- The Russian 235th Garrison Military Court released former 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA) Major General Ivan Popov from the pre-detention centre on 15 July and placed him under house arrest until 11 October.
- Armenian police detained another Russian citizen in Armenia, likely at the request of Russian authorities, amid deteriorating Armenian-Russian political and security relations.
- An investigation by Russian opposition outlet The Bell found that approximately 650,000 people left Russia following the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and have not returned.
- Russian forces recently advanced northwest of Avdiivka.
- The Russian government is continuing to improve Russia's bureaucratic mobilisation and conscription systems.
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