UN predicts Ukraine's population to decrease to 15 million by 2100. Ukraine's Institute for Demography responds
By 2100, Ukraine's population could be down to 15.3 million.
The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs noted this in its adjustment of world population predictions for 2024.
According to the UN, Ukraine's population was 37.441,000 as of 1 January 2024.
It was also reported that Ukraine's population will expand to 39.7 million by 2026, after which it will begin to decline annually. At this rate, by 2100, the population might be reduced to 15.3 million individuals.
Oleksandr Hladun, Deputy Director of Institute for Demography and Social Studies, in a comment to Ukrainska Pravda. Zhyttia noted that such a forecast by the UN is very pessimistic.
He noted that demographic forecasts fall into three categories: optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic. Each has its own parameters for fertility, mortality, and migration.
"For me, this is one of the most dismal prophecies for our state. It was most likely made with the war in mind, as well as the lack of population policy measures.
However, I would not advise to interpret the UN estimate on demography as the sole true verdict for Ukraine," said Oleksandr Hladun.
Forecasts are further classified by duration: short-term (2-5 years, which are the most accurate), medium-term (10-15 years), and long-term (beyond 50 years). The accuracy reduces as the time interval grows.
According to the Institute for Demography's mid-2023 prediction, Ukraine's population by 2037 could be reduced to around 30 million.
"Long-term projections should be viewed as a warning: what can the progression of events lead to in terms of fertility, mortality, and migration.
In my perspective, the most dismal long-term prognosis for Ukraine is a population decline to 25 million. However, even if the population starts to drop rapidly, it will be replaced by people who move from other countries," he explained.
According to the New York Times, in the spring of 2024, Ukraine's generation of healthy men under the age of 30 is the smallest in the country's history.
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