Ukrainian defenders conduct counteroffensives in certain areas of front line – ISW

Ukrainian troops are trying to seize the tactical initiative by conducting limited counterattacks in certain areas of the front, and they will be able to counterattack depending on the arrival of Western aid.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Western and US officials predict that Ukrainian forces will primarily be on the defensive for the next six months, with a large-scale counteroffensive not expected until 2025. Nonetheless, Ukrainian troops are actively engaging in limited counterattacks in specific frontline areas. The extent and timing of their counteroffensive operations will hinge significantly on the arrival of Western support.

A senior NATO official, as reported by The New York Times on 11 July, indicated that Ukraine needs to receive additional Western security aid and deploy more forces to the front before it can mount substantial counteroffensive operations, which are anticipated to be delayed until 2025.

ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are unlikely to achieve meaningful operational advances in Ukraine. Russian leader Vladimir Putin's strategy appears to focus on slow, steady territorial gains rather than rapid, significant manoeuvres.

To address manpower issues, Ukraine is currently forming several new brigades, which could be crucial in shifting the initiative. The timing and scale of Ukraine's ability to contest the initiative will depend largely on the Western security assistance provided to equip these new brigades.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 12 July:

• Western and US officials reportedly assess that Ukrainian forces will continue to be on the defensive for the next six months and will not be able to conduct a large-scale counteroffensive operation until 2025. Ukrainian forces are already attempting to contest the tactical initiative in limited counterattacks in select sectors of the front, however, and Ukrainian forces may be able to conduct limited counteroffensive operations even while largely on the defensive depending on the arrival of Western aid.
• The Kremlin continues to signal its unwillingness to participate in peace negotiations that do not result in complete Ukrainian and Western capitulation to the Kremlin's demands amid ongoing Ukrainian efforts to form an international consensus for future negotiations.
• Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov used a phone call with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on 12 July, his second in three weeks, to reiterate standard Russian threats intended to coerce the US out of supporting Ukraine as part of an ongoing reflexive control campaign targeting Western decision-makers.
• The United Kingdom (UK) government has reportedly not permitted Ukraine to use UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles to strike military targets within Russia, despite previous Western reporting and UK official statements to the contrary.
• The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced on 11 July a military aid package for Ukraine worth US$225 million.
• Indian state-run oil refineries are reportedly negotiating an oil import deal with Russia, likely as a result of the recent meetings between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian leader Vladimir Putin and improving Russo-Indian energy relations in recent months.
• The Kremlin continues to intensify efforts to encourage self-censorship among information space voices and consolidate physical control over internet infrastructure.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area.
• Russian infantry units are reportedly assaulting Ukrainian trench positions in single-file columns due to pervasive Ukrainian minefields and poor assault training.
• Russian leader Vladimir Putin met with Zaporizhzhia Oblast occupation administration head Yevgeny Balitsky on 12 July and discussed social and infrastructure projects in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

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