Russian command supports permissiveness in war crimes and cannot discipline its soldiers – ISW

Analysing another war crime committed by the Russians, experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have pointed out that the Russian military command both supports permissiveness in relation to war crimes and cannot "properly discipline troops and maintain order."

Source: ISW

Details: In June 2024, members of a Russian motorised rifle regiment, previously linked to the execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in late May, were reported to have executed two more Ukrainian POWs in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The footage shared on Ukrainian social media on 10 July depicted Russian servicemembers shooting the POWs on the Zaporizhzhia front. The Russian soldiers were identified as part of the Russian 70th Motorised Rifle Regiment (the 42nd Motorised Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District).

Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andrii Kostin announced on 10 July that the video unmistakably showed Ukrainian soldiers surrendering and following Russian orders. He confirmed that the incident, which took place near the village of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, was under investigation and had occurred in June 2024. The execution of POWs is a blatant violation of the Geneva Convention.

On 19 June, the ISW reported that the Russian military hierarchy promotes a culture of permissiveness regarding war crimes by its troops, particularly in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Quote: "The fact that the same military unit has continued to commit these crimes also suggests that the Russian high command is failing to properly discipline troops and maintain order."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 10 July:

• Ukrainian First Deputy Defence Minister Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk stressed that robust Western security assistance will be crucial for Ukraine's ability to contest and seize the battlefield initiative. Havryliuk also challenged the notion that Russian forces will be able to indefinitely sustain the consistent gradual creeping advances that support Russian leader Vladimir Putin's theory of victory for winning a war of attrition in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces are already attempting to contest the battlefield initiative in limited and localised counterattacks at the tactical level — emphasising that the current state of grinding positional warfare along the frontline is not an indefinitely stable one.
• Havryliuk assessed that Russia will face medium- to long-term economic and equipment challenges that will impede the Russian military's ability to indefinitely retain the theatre-wide initiative, sustain consistent offensive pressure that results in gradual creeping advances, and win a war of attrition.
• Putin's articulated theory of a slow, grinding victory in Ukraine is notably premised on accepting continuously high casualty rates, as exemplified by reported Russian losses accrued during two recent offensive efforts.
• NATO allies reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Ukraine and announced new security assistance packages for the Ukrainian war effort at the NATO summit in Washington, DC on 9-10 July.
• Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev reaffirmed that Russia would not accept or uphold any negotiated peace settlements with Kyiv short of Ukrainian capitulation, the destruction of the entire Ukrainian state, and the full occupation of Ukraine.
• Servicemembers of a Russian motorised rifle regiment that was previously implicated in the execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in late May 2024 reportedly executed two Ukrainian POWs in the same area in western Zaporizhia Oblast in June 2024.
• Select US military bases in Europe have instituted increased alert levels in response to intensified Russian sabotage and hybrid operations against NATO allies over the past several months.
• Russian forces recently advanced in Vovchansk, near Kreminna, and near Toretsk.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed on 10 July that the Russian military trained the first batch of Moscow Military District (MMD) counter-drone instructors at the Alabino training ground in Moscow Oblast.

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