West must shatter Putin's theory of victory, as he will demand more – ISW

Russian leader Vladimir Putin's theory of victory, which posits that Russia can continue its gradual advances in Ukraine indefinitely, will encourage Putin to prolong the war and strengthen his resolve to destroy Ukrainian statehood.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: The West must quickly provide Ukraine with the necessary support for counteroffensive operations to challenge Putin's theory of victory and prevent prolonging the war to secure a peace agreeable to Ukraine and its allies.

In an interview with the Philadelphia Inquirer published on 30 June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed concerns that the West fears pushing for a complete Ukrainian victory due to worries about Russian stability. This hesitation, he argues, has emboldened Putin to seize as much Ukrainian territory as possible.

Zelenskyy emphasised that each Russian advance strengthens Russia's bargaining position, allowing Putin to leverage this at strategic moments to seek a ceasefire, which would enable Russia to prepare for future aggression against Ukraine. 

Putin's theory of victory relies on the belief that Russian forces can continue making gradual advances, prevent Ukraine from achieving significant counteroffensive successes and win a war of attrition.

Quote: "Putin and the Russian military command likely view creeping offensive operations as a more guaranteed approach to making gains in Ukraine than larger mobile offensives and appear to be accepting the reality that Russian forces may have to pursue individual operationally significant objectives over the course of many months if not years.

A protracted war favours Putin's calculus since he likely assesses that Russia will be able to hold any ground it takes and that Russian forces will be more likely to achieve his current stated territorial objectives the longer the war progresses. Putin and the Kremlin have intentionally set no limits to their objectives of conquest in Ukraine and have suggested repeatedly that areas outside of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts are part of Russia."

More details: A prolonged war is likely to motivate Putin to explicitly set new territorial objectives, as long as he believes that Ukrainian forces are unable to halt his advances or conduct significant counteroffensives.

Putin's ultimate objective remains the complete destruction of Ukrainian statehood and identity, with territorial conquest serving as a means to this end.

He is currently unwilling to accept anything less than full Ukrainian capitulation, viewing any ceasefire as a temporary measure to prepare for renewed offensives to achieve his broader aims.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 30 June: 

• Russian leader Vladimir Putin's theory of victory that Russia will be able to make creeping advances in Ukraine indefinitely will incentivize Putin to protract the war and harden Putin's commitment to destroying Ukrainian statehood. The West must hasten to provide Ukraine the support it needs to conduct counteroffensive operations to invalidate Putin's theory of victory and avoid protracting the war more than necessary to secure a peace acceptable to Ukraine and its partners.
• Putin retains his objective of entirely destroying Ukrainian statehood and identity, and all his objectives for territorial conquest in Ukraine are a means to this end.
• The Russian military command appears to be separating some limited elements of airborne (VDV) units and formations into smaller components across different sectors of the front, and the Russian military command may still view VDV units as relatively elite, at least compared with other Russian units and formations.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly struck the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant (NLMK) in Lipetsk Oblast on 30 June.
• Dagestan Republic Head Sergey Melikov publicly sided with Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov in a recent debate between Kadyrov and Russian Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin about responses to religious extremism in Russia amid growing ethnic and religious tension in Russia.
• Military and civilian flights continue to experience GPS interference over Europe and the Middle East, highlighting the role of long-term GPS jamming in ongoing and future conflicts.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Kreminna, and Russian forces recently advanced near Lyptsi, Vovchansk, Kupiansk and Avdiivka.
• A Russian milblogger claimed on 29 June that Russian military commanders sent about 50 wounded soldiers of the 26th Tank Regiment (47th Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Army, Moscow Military District [MMD]), who are on leave awaiting medical treatments, to the front against doctors' instructions. 

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