"It won't be easy": Ukraine's power transmission operator announces electricity situation forecast for winter

This winter will be difficult for the Ukrainian power system, and power engineers are considering several scenarios of how to pass it. 

Source: Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, the Chairman of the Board of NPC Ukrenergo (Ukraine’s electricity transmission system operator), in an interview with hromadske, Ukrainian TV and radio broadcasting company

Quote: "The winter will be difficult. The real situation will depend on many factors, the main one being the bombardments. It is impossible to predict their nature, massiveness and accuracy," he said. 

Details: He said that Ukrainian experts are considering several scenarios but are preparing for the worst: 

The pessimistic scenario envisages the continuation of massive attacks, which will result in the failure of certain energy facilities. In this case, there will be less available generation in winter than envisaged in the baseline plan.

The optimistic scenario assumes that there will be no or few successful Russian attacks and that more energy facilities will be restored than expected under the baseline plan. Then, the power outages will be slightly shorter. 

Quote: "We need to understand that there may be power outages next winter. We need to be prepared for difficult scenarios in winter. This is better than promising people that everything will be fine and the winter will pass without blackouts and then being forced to introduce them," added Kudrytskyi. 

Background:

• If Ukraine had succeeded in reconnecting the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) to the power grid, there would have been virtually no need for power restrictions. However, without the plant, Ukrainians will be guaranteed to have power restriction schedules for at least two winters.
• In winter, the electricity shortage rate will amount up to 35%, which may result in Ukrainians having power for five to six hours daily.
• By winter, Ukraine can restore 200-250 MW of generation (or 7.1%) of the required 3.5 GW. This new generation capacity creation rate can be compared to the famous "Stakhanovite movement." (The Stakhanovite movement was a mass cultural movement of workers that originated in the Soviet Union and encouraged socialist emulation and rationalisation of workplace processes – ed.)
• It is quite realistic that in winter, Ukrainians can get five to six hours of electricity daily, but everything will depend on the circumstances.

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