Ukraine lacks air defence to cover repaired power facilities

The shortage of air defence missiles makes it impossible to cover the power system facilities that Ukraine has already repaired or is in the process of repairing. 

Source: Dmytro Sakharuk, Executive Director of DTEK, in an interview with Kyiv Post; Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Sakharuk, Executive Director of DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy company, said that Ukraine's widespread shortage of critical air defence missiles is hampering its ability to protect its critical infrastructure from Russian strikes.

For every missile that Ukraine obtains to defend against Russian attacks on its power grid, Russia has five to six missiles to launch at Ukraine. 

Sakharuk noted that if Russia launched 10 missiles at any target in Ukraine, Ukrainian forces would need to respond with at least 12 air defence missiles to repel such an attack. 

He also stressed that the sharp difference between the required and actual ratio of Ukrainian air defence assets to attacking Russian missiles means that the lack of interceptor missiles makes it impossible to cover the power grid facilities that Ukraine has already repaired or is in the process of repairing. 

Moreover, the ISW noted that Russia's campaign of air attacks on Ukraine's power grid had already severely limited Ukraine's electricity generation capacity, and Russian forces have been able to exploit the air defence deficit caused by the lack of Western-supplied air defence systems to maximise damage to Ukraine's energy facilities throughout 2024. 

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 26 June:

• The likely Islamic State (IS) affiliate Wilayat Kavkaz terrorist attacks in the Republic of Dagestan on 23 June have increased fears within the Russian information space about further attacks and instability in the North Caucasus.
• The 23 June terrorist attacks in Dagestan also prompted Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov to double down on his image as a ruthless autocratic strongman capable of protecting the North Caucasus from religious extremism.
• North Korea will reportedly send military construction and engineering forces to participate in "reconstruction work" in occupied Donetsk Oblast as early as July 2024.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated that Russia is not interested in any negotiations that do not result in Ukrainian territorial concessions beyond the parts of Ukraine Russian forces already occupy.
• New Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov used his first phone call with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on 26 June to reiterate standard Russian threats meant to coerce the US out of supporting Ukraine as part of the wider Russian reflexive control campaign targeting Western decision-making.
• Russia and Ukraine exchanged 90 prisoners of war (POWs) each in a one-to-one POW exchange on 25 June amid United Nations (UN) reports of Russia's continued abuse of POWs.
• Russia and Iran signed a memorandum on 26 June regarding the supply of Russian gas to Iran, following reported disagreements between Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the Russian supply of gas to the PRC.
• Ukraine’s pervasive shortage of critical air defence missiles is inhibiting Ukraine’s ability to protect its critical infrastructure against Russian strikes.
• Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Kupiansk.
• Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) published a report on 26 June detailing a significant increase in Russia's military equipment and weapons production in 2023.

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