Vast majority of Ukrainians believe in victory, and almost 40% believe it will happen in 1-2 years – survey

The vast majority of Ukrainians believe in Ukraine's victory, and 38% believe that it will come in one or two years.

Source: Razumkov Centre poll results

Quote: "A total of 80% of respondents believe in Ukraine's victory in the war, and 12% do not...

As for the possible timing of the victory, the estimates of those who believe in it have changed little compared to March and January 2024, when similar surveys were conducted. Only compared to January 2024, the number of those who believe that victory will come by the end of this year has increased slightly (the share of such respondents has increased from 20% to 24%).

38% believe that it will come in 1-2 years, 15% that it will take 3 to 5 years, 5% that it will take more than 5 years, and 1% that the victory will happen ‘unlikely in my lifetime.’

Regarding what can be considered a victory, a relative majority (42%) of those who believe in victory say that it could be the withdrawal of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine and the restoration of the borders as of January 2014.

Another 17.5% would consider the destruction of the Russian army and an uprising/disintegration within Russia a victory.

14% would consider the restoration of the status quo as of 23 February 2022 a victory, 8% would consider the expulsion of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine, except for occupied Crimea, [a victory], and 8% would consider the end of the war [a victory], even if the Russian army remains in the territories that were captured as a result of a full-scale invasion (after 24 February 2022)."

For reference: The survey was conducted from 6 to 12 June 2024 face-to-face in the territories controlled by the Ukrainian government and not subject to combat actions.

The survey was conducted using a stratified multi-stage sampling technique with random selection. The structure of the sample population reflects the demographic structure of the adult population of the surveyed areas as of the beginning of 2022 (by age, gender and type of settlement).

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