US should allow Ukraine to use US-supplied weapons against military targets in Russia – ISW

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that the United States should allow Ukraine to use US-supplied weaponry to strike all legitimate military targets in Russia's operational and deep rear.

Source: ISW

Details: Analysts say that the current absence of certainty about US restrictions regarding Ukraine's use of US-provided weapons to target military targets on Russian territory is a lost opportunity to deter further Russian offensive efforts across the border in Ukraine's north.

Michael Carpenter, US National Security Council Director for Europe, said the US decision to allow Ukraine to strike Russian territory with US weapons was not limited to Kharkiv Oblast.

Meanwhile, Politico reported that US President Joe Biden secretly allowed Ukraine to strike Russian territory with US-supplied weapons, but only near the borders of Kharkiv Oblast.

Analysts believe Carpenter's comments and Politico's report indicate ambiguity regarding the US explicitly authorising strikes on targets in Russia, despite hints of potential openness to expanding authorisations if Russian forces initiate offensive operations along other parts of the border.

Due to this uncertainty from the United States, Ukraine is missing an opportunity to deter Russia's preparations for offensive operations across the northern border.

Ukrainian officials have recently warned that Russia is also building up forces in Kursk and Bryansk oblasts (Russia) across the border in Sumy oblast, and ISW has previously estimated that even a limited grouping would have the desired effect of drawing and locking in Ukrainian troops in the area.

Experts once again emphasise that the Kremlin may decide to launch offensive operations in various Ukrainian border oblasts outside Kharkiv Oblast if it considers that it can continue to move troops across the border without being exposed to the risk of Ukrainian attacks.

Ukrainian forces would be forced to defend against such offensive operations before the US provides the clear authorisation necessary for cross-border strikes outside Kharkiv Oblast.

The increased likelihood of other Russian offensives in Ukraine's north will require Ukrainian forces to reallocate existing resources to deterrence or defence, opening up opportunities for the Russians elsewhere along the war zone to exploit.

"US clarity that Ukraine can use US-provided weapons against Russian ground forces concentrations in Russia that appear to be preparing for imminent cross-border operations would likely change Russian commanders' calculations about the wisdom of making such ostentatious preparations," the ISW reported.

"ISW continues to assess that the US should allow Ukraine to strike all legitimate military targets in Russia’s operational and deep rear with US-provided weapons," analysts added.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 1 June:

• Russian forces conducted a large-scale drone and missile strike mainly targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of 31 May to 1 June.
• The current lack of clarity about US restrictions on Ukraine's use of US-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russian territory misses an opportunity to deter further Russian offensive efforts across the border into northern Ukraine.
• Individual Western governments are stipulating disparate policies about Ukraine's future use of Western-supplied F-16 fighter jets.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledged that some Ukrainian reserve brigades remain understrength and stated that the slow arrival of US security assistance is complicating Ukrainian efforts to effectively commit reserves to ongoing defensive operations.
• Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Kupiansk, Chasiv Yar, and Avdiivka.
• The Russian Ministry of Justice designated the "Way Home" social movement, a movement of relatives of mobilised Russian servicemembers that has been calling for their relatives' demobilisation, as a "foreign agent" on 1 June.

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