Putin not interested in sincere peace talks with Ukraine – ISW

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have noted that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is not interested and is unlikely to be interested in sincere peace talks in Ukraine in the near future.

Source: ISW

Details: On 15-16 June, Switzerland hosted the Ukraine-initiated Global Peace Summit. Most participating countries and international organisations signed a joint statement on 16 June reiterating their commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The communiqué also emphasised support for Ukrainian control over the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to ensure nuclear safety, promoted unrestricted and secure commercial navigation in the Black Sea for global food security, and called for the release of all prisoners of war (POWs) and the homecoming of all "deported and unlawfully displaced Ukrainian children" and other detained Ukrainian civilians.

More than 80 countries and international entities signed the statement, but Saudi Arabia, India, South Africa, Armenia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Brazil (which participated as an observer) were among those that did not.

The Office of the President of Ukraine highlighted that the summit's goal was to establish a "fair peace ... based on the United Nations (UN) Charter and international law," underscoring Ukraine's drive to gain global support to end the war without compromising its territorial integrity or sovereignty.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte declared on 16 June that "Russia should not be at the [negotiating] table now" and that peace in Ukraine will only come "when Russia agrees to international principles and the UN Charter."

The ISW continues to believe that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is not genuinely interested in negotiations, using the pretence of talks to lure the West into making premature concessions that would undermine Ukraine's sovereignty.

Putin's recent rhetoric suggests he foresees a Russian victory in Ukraine, relying on the belief that Russian forces can sustain incremental advances on the battlefield to outlast Western support for Ukraine, making sincere negotiations unlikely in the near future.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 16 June:  

• The vast majority of the countries and international organisations that participated in the Ukraine-initiated Global Peace Summit in Switzerland on 15-16 June signed a joint communiqué on 16 June reaffirming support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
• A limited prison break and hostage situation at a Russian pretrial detention centre in Rostov-on-Don, Rostov Oblast, prompted Russian ultranationalist complaints highlighting Russia's failure to crack down against domestic Islamic extremism following the 22 March Crocus City Hall terrorist attack.
• The Kremlin and Kremlin affiliates continue efforts to use Russia's relationship with Republika Srpska (the Serbian political entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina) to destabilise the Balkans.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk and Donetsk City.
• The Russian military reportedly continues to coerce Russian conscripts into signing military service contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD), likely as part of ongoing crypto-mobilisation efforts.

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