Ukraine's wheat exports to hit 10-year low this year – US Department of Agriculture

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects Ukraine's wheat exports to reach 13 million tonnes for the year, the lowest figure in the last 10 years.

Source: a report by the USDA

Details: The report forecasts Ukraine's wheat production at 19.5 million tonnes in the 2024-2025 marketing year, down 3.5 million tonnes from last year's harvest. Exports will amount to 13 million tonnes, the lowest level in the last 10 years.

This report encompasses all grain-exporting countries, with analysts predicting the largest decline for Russia, dropping by 5 million tonnes to 88 million tonnes.

At the same time, Ukraine's barley production for the year is estimated at 5 million tonnes (-0.2 million tonnes compared to the May forecast), while exports are 2.2 million tonnes (-0.1 million tonnes).

Meanwhile, the maize harvest is expected to reach 27.7 million tonnes (+0.7 million tonnes), while exports will increase to 24.5 million tonnes (+0.5 million tonnes), experts say.

USDA expects the global wheat harvest in the new marketing year to decrease by 8 million tonnes, from 798.19 million tonnes to 790.75 million tonnes, and trade to decrease from 215.36 million tonnes to 212.98 million tonnes.

The global maize harvest is expected to increase to 1,220.5 million tonnes from 1,219.9 million tonnes and exports to 193.9 million tonnes from 192.66 million tonnes.

Background: 

• During an online meeting with representatives of the agrarian policy ministries of the United Kingdom and the Republic of Lithuania, Ukraine's deputy ministers of agrarian policy and food discussed the application of a system that can determine the origin of grain supplied by Russia to world markets.
• Ukraine's Cabinet of Ministers (the Ukrainian government) has simplified sunflower seed exports to Bulgaria by implementing an automatic licensing regime, replacing the non-automatic system.

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