Russians resume transporting fuel via potentially targeted Crimean Bridge – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has believed that Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and logistical targets may have compelled Russian forces to change their deployment and transport arrangements.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: The Atesh Ukrainian partisan movement, based in Crimea, shared on 10 June that Russian forces have recently shifted air defence systems from temporarily occupied Crimea to Belgorod Oblast. This move leaves Crimea somewhat exposed as Russian air defences are not fully covering the region anymore.

Footage from 8 June reveals Russia's activity of transporting fuel over the Kerch Strait via the railway bridge.

Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk, spokesperson for the Joint Press Centre for Operational Command Pivden (South), said the Russian authorities had halted the transport of fuel across the Kerch Strait railway bridge since March 2024 due to fears of Ukrainian attacks that could potentially damage the bridge.

However, Ukrainian military-focused news outlet Militarnyi suggested on 10 June that Ukrainian strikes against railway barges in the Kerch Strait on 30 May might have prompted Russian authorities to resume the transport of fuel via the railway bridge.

Quote from ISW: "It is unclear whether Russian authorities will continue to use the Kerch Strait railway bridge for fuel and logistics transport to occupied Crimea in the near to medium term. 

Doing so would likely alleviate some logistics constraints as Russia struggles to compensate for lost ferries across the strait but would leave the Kerch Strait bridge increasingly vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes, particularly if Russian air defence coverage of Crimea is degraded as Atesh reported."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 10 June:

• Ukrainian forces conducted a strike against Russian air defence assets in occupied Crimea overnight on 9 to 10 June, likely with ATACMS.
• Ukraine's Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk denied on 10 June a Sky News report that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian Ropucha-class landing ship in the Sea of Azov on the night of 8 to 9 June.
• New Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov met with a select group of Russian milbloggers and military commentators on 10 June, suggesting that the Kremlin seeks to partially use Belousov's replacement of widely unpopular former Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu to build bridges and cultivate ties with a broader milblogger community via a cadre of coopted and loyal military commentators.
• Officials from Russia, Iran and the People's Republic of China (PRC) held bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the BRICS foreign ministers meeting in Nizhny Novgorod on 10 June.
• The US Department of State announced on 10 June that the US and Poland jointly launched the Ukraine Communications Group (UCG) in Warsaw to counter Russian disinformation by offering fact-based reporting about the war in Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently advanced southwest of Donetsk City and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area.
• Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov appears to be focusing on healthcare programmes for Russian servicemembers in his new role.

Background:

• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said that the Ukrainian Defence Forces successfully hit the Kerch ferry crossing with ATACMS missiles on the night of 29-30 May. Two ferries engaged in rail and road transport had suffered considerable damage in the attack. One of them ran aground, blocking the functioning of the entire Kerch ferry.
• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also confirmed that Neptune missiles hit a ferry crossing and an oil terminal at Port Kavkaz in Russia's Krasnodar Krai on the night of 30-31 May.
• Ukrainska Pravda sources in the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) reported that the defence forces of Ukraine, together with the SSU, had conducted an operation lasting several days to destroy the supply routes for the Russian troops in temporarily occupied Crimea.

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